With the failure of the Brexit vote and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, we find ourselves in a state of politics as unusual. Let’s take a closer look at each to see what I mean.

Should we care about the Brexit vote? In a word, yes. What happens in the vote today matters to us as both U.S. citizens and, especially, investors. It will help determine what the future of the world economy looks like, and it could potentially shake up the global financial system.

We’ve been talking all week about the economy, the markets, and the risks therein. But looking back on these posts, there seems to be a glaring hole: the government shutdown.

That absence wasn’t an accident. In the longer term, which is how investors should look at things, the current government shutdown very likely won’t matter. As such, it hasn’t warranted a discussion. The shutdown will last until it’s over. Then, we will move on, just as we have done with past shutdowns.

As I do every month, it’s time to take a look back at what happened in the previous one and what it could mean going forward. We have a lot to cover.

We closed yesterday’s post with the observation that although current conditions remain good on the economic front, there may be clouds on the horizon. As such, it could be time to start thinking about a pending recession. Today, I want to take a deeper dive into that. But let’s start with why things are still good.

This morning, the major headline was the downward revision in Apple’s revenue projection—the first time this has happened in well over a decade—on lower sales in China. The reaction to this news was apocalyptic, with markets around the world selling off. But why on earth are slower cell phone sales—from only one company—such a big deal? And do these events mean the downturn will continue to get worse?

Brad here. Today, we have another detailed look from one of our great investment analysts, Nicholas Follett. Just as with Anu’s take on emerging markets yesterday, Nick provides an in-depth discussion of one of the most popular asset classes out there—including why you might be interested and what you need to watch out for. He goes into a bit more detail than we normally do here, but consider this an example of what really goes on at Commonwealth as we dig deep for our clients and investors. Enjoy!

Brad here. As part of my Next World series on this blog, I have been discussing the themes and implications with Commonwealth analysts to try to determine what it will mean, over time, for how we invest. Anu Gaggar, our international analyst, put together this piece, which I think is worth sharing. Take it away, Anu!

Of course, here I am riffing on the famous headline published after President Ford refused to bail out New York City (see below). Yesterday, there is no doubt that markets were expecting a bailout from the Fed—and threw a tantrum when they didn’t get it.

It’s that moment you’ve all been waiting for—the 2018 Bubble of the Year Award (“the Bubby”)! This long-standing tradition (as of last year) brings together the strongest and weakest investment stories for a no-holds-barred match to see which stands out as the bubble of the year. This year, we have several strong contestants.