About a month ago, I started a series of posts on my current personal project: beating the market. As noted then, I am quite humble about what I expect from this endeavor. On the whole, I would like to use it as a way to learn more about the market itself, forcing myself to think through various issues in a very difficult context. But then again, you never know. We might really figure something out. We shall see.

I just returned from spending the past week in Monaco on a Commonwealth conference trip. It was a stellar experience, per usual—our conference planners are the best of the best. Also per usual, getting out of my comfortable home environment has prompted a new level of reflection in me. In this case, I’ve been musing over affluence, income distribution, and what it means to be wealthy.

Thus far, it has been an eventful year. Markets were up substantially, pulled back sharply, and then bounced again. The economy was slow going into the year, picked up during the first quarter, and now may be slowing again. The political story has included the Mueller report, a China trade deal and then trade war, and Brexit (now postponed). Like I said, it has been an eventful year—and it is only May.

Yesterday, we talked about the effects of the tariffs on the stock market and why those effects—even though they are real—are likely to be limited. Today, I want to discuss what actually happened with the tariffs, what they mean for the economy, and where this situation is likely to go. The conclusions from yesterday on the stock market remain the same, but this discussion will provide valuable context for what might happen in the future. So, let’s start with what happened.

After yesterday’s terrible performance—with U.S. stock markets down more than 2 percent—worries are starting to rise. Combined with last week’s declines, it looks like we may be seeing the end of the bull market. So, is it time to panic?

When we see sharp drawdowns in the stock market like we have over the past couple of days, it’s natural to worry it might be the start of something much worse. Indeed, it could be. Odds are, however, that this will be a brief pullback followed by a rebound.

April was the month that everything turned around . . . we hope. Job growth kicked back to very high levels, taking the unemployment rate to a 50-year low. Consumer confidence rebounded in a big way. And, perhaps as a consequence, retail spending also came in well above expectations. On top of all that good news, economic growth came in well above expectations for the first quarter—even as the Fed stepped back from its hawkish stance, leaving interest rates unchanged and likely to remain that way.

On the face of it, this morning’s strong jobs number should elicit a full three cheers. Job growth came in at 263,000. This result was up from last month’s downwardly revised 189,000 and well above the expected 190,000. Looks like a home run, right? In fact, when you dig into the details, the news (while still good) is not nearly as good as the headline suggests. That is why I am subtracting a full cheer from the headline.

Today we will take a look at an old investing adage: “sell in May and go away.” It is supposed to reflect the idea that market returns over the summer and fall are worse than those in the winter and spring. Under this theory, you should sell all your stocks in May and then buy them back in November.

Brad here. In the U.S., we tend to pay very little attention (too little) to what is going on in other countries, even major ones like Japan. Fortunately, we have Anu Gaggar, international analyst at Commonwealth, to keep an eye on things and let us know when to pay attention. Japan is on the verge of enthroning a new emperor, and that is something we need to be aware of. Domo arigato, Anu-san!