---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (69)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (69)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/downturn-tablet.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-we-seeing-signs-of-peak-growth)

## [Are We Seeing Signs of Peak Growth?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-we-seeing-signs-of-peak-growth)

July 18, 2019

In retrospect, a good candidate for demonstrating the peak of the boom may be yesterday’s announcement by Netflix that subscriber growth came in well below expectations during the second quarter: the number of subscribers was up by 2.7 million against expectations of 5.3 million. Worse, in its most developed market (i.e., the U.S.), subscriber numbers were actually down by 126,000, against an expected gain of 310,000. This marks the first time the company has *ever* seen a decline in U.S. subscribers.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-we-seeing-signs-of-peak-growth) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-we-seeing-signs-of-peak-growth#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/debt-ceiling-crisis-heating-up)

## [Debt Ceiling Crisis Heating Up](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/debt-ceiling-crisis-heating-up)

July 17, 2019

An issue I have been mentioning for the past couple of months is finally starting to get some attention: the U.S. is facing a potential crisis as the government runs out of money. Sometime this fall, likely in September, the government won't have the funds to pay its bills.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/debt-ceiling-crisis-heating-up) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/debt-ceiling-crisis-heating-up#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/fed-money.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-season-here-we-go-again)

## [Earnings Season: Here We Go Again](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-season-here-we-go-again)

July 16, 2019

This morning, I spent some time speaking with a client who wanted to know why markets had slowed down recently. But I am not sure I agree with her. We hit all-time highs just the other day, although in recent days, the market has been taking a bit of a breather. Will that down time continue, or could we get another leg up?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-season-here-we-go-again) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-season-here-we-go-again#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2019)

## [A Look Back at the Markets in Q2 and Ahead to Q3 2019](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2019)

July 9, 2019

Q2 2019: it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Okay, it wasn’t either, but last quarter we did see something that looked like both. After hitting new highs in April (the best!), markets declined significantly in May for the first time all year (the worst!) and then bounced back in June close to all-time highs. Internationally, we saw the same story, although to a lesser extent, as both developed and emerging markets echoed U.S. performance with an up-down-up pattern. We closed the quarter on a positive note, though, with all major indices up around the world. As far as the stock market is concerned, it was a good quarter.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2019) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2019#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Election_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wonderful-wednesday-independence-day-2019)

## [Wonderful Wednesday: Independence Day 2019](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wonderful-wednesday-independence-day-2019)

July 3, 2019

Happy Independence Day! *[Independence Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day_(1996_film))* is actually one of my favorite science fiction B movies. It gave me one of my best laugh lines for speeches: “You remember the movie *Independence Day*—it started with aliens destroying Washington, DC. Later on, though, it turned out they were hostile.”

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wonderful-wednesday-independence-day-2019) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/wonderful-wednesday-independence-day-2019#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/marketVolatility-magnify.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-next-recession-look-like)

## [What Will the Next Recession Look Like?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-next-recession-look-like)

June 28, 2019

There has been a great deal of coverage on slowing growth. Indeed, on this blog we have looked at signs that the recovery may be close to the end. What that means, of course, is that a recession may well be in the cards in the next couple of years. Although we are not there yet, now is a good time to take a closer look at what it could look like. After all, it has been more than 10 years since we last had a recession, and that one was not typical.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-next-recession-look-like) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-next-recession-look-like#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/news-tablet.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/facebook-libra-threat-or-menace)

## [Facebook Libra: Threat or Menace?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/facebook-libra-threat-or-menace)

June 27, 2019

*“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/facebook-libra-threat-or-menace) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/facebook-libra-threat-or-menace#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/ConsumerSpending_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-down-a-bad-sign)

## [Consumer Confidence Down: A Bad Sign](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-down-a-bad-sign)

June 26, 2019

As I kind of expected, some news did hit [yesterday](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/enjoying-a-quiet-day-at-the-beginning-of-summer) while my son and I were fishing that is definitely worth a closer look. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence—one of the most underappreciated economic stats there is—dropped from 131.3 in May to 121.5 for June. This result is the lowest level since September 2017.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-down-a-bad-sign) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-down-a-bad-sign#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/USeconomy_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/enjoying-a-quiet-day-at-the-beginning-of-summer)

## [Enjoying a Quiet Day at the Beginning of Summer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/enjoying-a-quiet-day-at-the-beginning-of-summer)

June 25, 2019

I spent this morning the way I usually do, reading the newspapers, looking at the economic reports, and scanning the futures markets. Also as usual, I found things to worry about: Consumer confidence, still high by historical standards, dropped more than expected in June, falling to its lowest level in almost two years. New home sales also missed expectations, declining for the second month in a row instead of climbing. The markets are down a bit as I write this . . . So far, so normal.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/enjoying-a-quiet-day-at-the-beginning-of-summer) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/enjoying-a-quiet-day-at-the-beginning-of-summer#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/stock-closeup.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-melt-up-maybe-so)

## [Market Melt-Up? Maybe So](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-melt-up-maybe-so)

June 21, 2019

So much for sell in May and go away. The S&P 500 has hit another all-time high and is on track for the best June in more than 60 years (since 1955). New public offerings have exploded, with Beyond Meat and Slack the most recent wunderkinder. Companies are racing to go to the market. They know that with valuations at all-time highs and the risks rising, now is the time to sell at the best price they will likely get.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-melt-up-maybe-so) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-melt-up-maybe-so#comments-listing)

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- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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