This week, two major banks—the Royal Bank of Scotland and J.P. Morgan—issued some alarming advice for investors: sell your stocks, as the end is nigh. They didn’t use those exact terms, but the message was clear enough.

Now that the equity markets seem to have stabilized a bit, let’s return to what underlies much of the current turmoil: the market for oil. The conversation usually centers on the price of oil, but the price is merely a symptom, not the cause.

Last week was a big one for economic data, with important releases on business and jobs, plus insights into the Fed's outlook.  

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. Last month, we got our first yellow light (in consumer confidence), which continues this month despite substantial improvement in that area. Although there were some indications of weakness in other parts of the economy in December, we also saw positive signs, notably in employment. Overall, the picture this month is somewhat better than last month.

I still want to talk more about oil and the Middle East, and I will, but the more urgent topic is China. What is going on there, and what does it mean for us here in the U.S.?

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I look back at 2015, which was actually the worst year for the markets since the financial crisis, but a solid year for the ongoing economic recovery.

In shades of last August, the Chinese stock market breaks down, markets around the world drop, and everyone starts to wonder one thing: just how bad can it get? 

It certainly didn’t take long for markets to set the tone in 2016.

The first trading day of the year kicked off with big declines around the world, and investors were quick to start worrying. At 9:40 A.M. yesterday, someone asked me what I thought of the “January effect”—the notion that what happens in January determines the outcome for the year—and if I believed 2016 would be a washout. My response, in brief, was that 10 minutes probably isn’t a long enough time frame to judge the entire year.

Last week was a short one thanks to the New Year holiday, with limited economic data released. Overall, the data was positive, indicating that improved consumer confidence should continue to drive the economy. But one of the major components, housing, may be slowing down, suggesting more of a slow but steady recovery.

This post originally appeared last summer. Now, as we close out 2015, I want to revisit whether the theory actually played out.

Predictions of doom and gloom in the financial markets or economy tend to try my patience—unless they are supported by fact—so I’m understandably skeptical of the Shemitah, a prophecy that suggests the potential for a financial crisis every seven years. Imagine my surprise, though, when I looked more deeply into this story and discovered that there is something to the theory of a seven-year cycle in U.S. financial markets.