I still want to talk more about oil and the Middle East, and I will, but the more urgent topic is China. What is going on there, and what does it mean for us here in the U.S.?

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I look back at 2015, which was actually the worst year for the markets since the financial crisis, but a solid year for the ongoing economic recovery.

In shades of last August, the Chinese stock market breaks down, markets around the world drop, and everyone starts to wonder one thing: just how bad can it get? 

It certainly didn’t take long for markets to set the tone in 2016.

The first trading day of the year kicked off with big declines around the world, and investors were quick to start worrying. At 9:40 A.M. yesterday, someone asked me what I thought of the “January effect”—the notion that what happens in January determines the outcome for the year—and if I believed 2016 would be a washout. My response, in brief, was that 10 minutes probably isn’t a long enough time frame to judge the entire year.

Last week was a short one thanks to the New Year holiday, with limited economic data released. Overall, the data was positive, indicating that improved consumer confidence should continue to drive the economy. But one of the major components, housing, may be slowing down, suggesting more of a slow but steady recovery.

This post originally appeared last summer. Now, as we close out 2015, I want to revisit whether the theory actually played out.

Predictions of doom and gloom in the financial markets or economy tend to try my patience—unless they are supported by fact—so I’m understandably skeptical of the Shemitah, a prophecy that suggests the potential for a financial crisis every seven years. Imagine my surprise, though, when I looked more deeply into this story and discovered that there is something to the theory of a seven-year cycle in U.S. financial markets.

This post originally appeared in February 2015, but it’s worth a refresher as we start a new year.

Did you know that South Boston is actually to the east and East Boston to the north of the city? And that there’s one local highway where you’re really traveling south but on a northbound route at the same time? I’m not sure who drew up the plans, but I think they might have had a screw loose.

Trying to make sense of mutual fund gains and losses can be equally confusing.

I shared this post last spring, and I think it’s a great reminder to help us keep our expectations in check for the new year.

The recency effect is a well-known cognitive bias in which events that have occurred most recently are given more weight than a longer-term trend. Recency bias poses a problem when it comes to evaluating investment returns—most people will only look at the last year’s returns, disregarding historical trends.

On a shortened week with the Christmas holiday, last week’s data releases gave a mixed look at the consumer and business sectors, with notably different results.

As 2015 draws to a close, the time has come for my traditional Christmas post. Best wishes to you and yours this holiday.

I have always loved Christmas. But as I grew older, I think I lost much of the wonder and the spirit behind the love and giving of the season. Now I have a seven-year-old son who is wrestling with the stress of being good under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf,” eyeing presents under the tree, and baking cookies with his mom. His anticipation and enthusiasm are infectious, and I realize that, thanks to his influence, I am recovering much of what I had lost.