The Independent Market Observer

Navigating Mutual Fund Results

December 30, 2015

This post originally appeared in February 2015, but it’s worth a refresher as we start a new year.

Did you know that South Boston is actually to the east and East Boston to the north of the city? And that there’s one local highway where you’re really traveling south but on a northbound route at the same time? I’m not sure who drew up the plans, but I think they might have had a screw loose.

Trying to make sense of mutual fund gains and losses can be equally confusing.

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Avoiding Shortsightedness: Looking at Returns for the Next 10 Years

December 29, 2015

I shared this post last spring, and I think it’s a great reminder to help us keep our expectations in check for the new year.

The recency effect is a well-known cognitive bias in which events that have occurred most recently are given more weight than a longer-term trend. Recency bias poses a problem when it comes to evaluating investment returns—most people will only look at the last year’s returns, disregarding historical trends.

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Monday Update: Mixed Data, But More Signs of a Slowdown

December 28, 2015

On a shortened week with the Christmas holiday, last week’s data releases gave a mixed look at the consumer and business sectors, with notably different results.

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Renewal and Hope for Christmas

December 24, 2015

As 2015 draws to a close, the time has come for my traditional Christmas post. Best wishes to you and yours this holiday.

I have always loved Christmas. But as I grew older, I think I lost much of the wonder and the spirit behind the love and giving of the season. Now I have a seven-year-old son who is wrestling with the stress of being good under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf,” eyeing presents under the tree, and baking cookies with his mom. His anticipation and enthusiasm are infectious, and I realize that, thanks to his influence, I am recovering much of what I had lost.

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Where Does the U.S. Dollar Go from Here?

December 23, 2015

As many of you know, one of the most popular trades for investors in 2015 was a hedging of the U.S. dollar for international exposures—the overriding assumption being that the dollar would continue to increase following a hike in interest rates. 

The reasoning behind this is that higher interest rates, coupled with an expanding economy, should attract foreign capital to the U.S., resulting in a demand for dollars relative to other currencies. Further, an imbalance of supply and demand should result in an increase in the value of the dollar, which would detract from the returns offered by international investments for a domestic investor. The simple solution, therefore, is to hedge all international exposures in an effort to avoid the translation losses from foreign currencies back to the dollar in an environment where the dollar is appreciating.

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Core Truths About Investing

December 22, 2015

This post originally appeared last spring in response to questions I had received about my investing approach.

Given what I do for a living, it’s not surprising that I have frequent conversations about investing. I was asked something recently that on the surface seemed like an easy question to answer: What core truths do you know about investing? There are endless factoids, trends, and theories, but what do you believe to be the basic constants?

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Monday Update: U.S. Good, Abroad Not So Good

December 21, 2015

Last week’s releases included consumer prices, sentiment in the housing industry, housing starts, and industrial production. Plus, of course, there was the most important one: the decision by the Federal Open Market Committee to start raising interest rates.

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How Do Rising Rates Affect Bond Investments?

December 18, 2015

My colleague Peter Essele, portfolio manager in Commonwealth’s Investment Management group, is the author of today’s post, which was originally published in June 2015. With so much focus on the Federal Reserve and rising rates, it is a good reminder.

Though the media want us to believe that we’re on the verge of a cascading bond market—where rising rates will lead to price declines on bond strategies, which will lead to outflows, followed by more price declines due to forced selling—these fears are somewhat exaggerated.

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Rising Interest Rates, Part 3: What About Investments?

December 17, 2015

This post originally appeared last spring and is part 3 of a series on what happens when interest rates start to rise.

As this is the final post in my series on interest rates, it’s time to talk about what everyone is probably thinking: What happens to investments when interest rates rise? This question is especially pertinent given yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve on a rate hike.

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Rising Interest Rates, Part 2: Exploring the Gap

December 16, 2015

This post originally appeared last spring and is part 2 of a series on what happens when interest rates start to rise.

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