The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Economic Data Mixed But Improving

May 9, 2016

Last week’s news was mixed but more positive than we’ve seen recently, suggesting that the economy continues to stabilize and may be starting to improve.

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How to Sell High and Buy Low

May 6, 2016

After Wednesday’s post on why many investment portfolios are doing badly, the natural follow-up question is, how do we get them to do better? Everyone, me included, would like to be able to buy into asset classes that will do well and avoid those that won’t.

If only it were that simple.

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The Presidential Race: Uncertainty Left and Right

May 5, 2016

The Indiana primaries giveth, and the Indiana primaries taketh away.

On the one hand, after Donald Trump’s victory there pushed both Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of the race, we now know who the Republican nominee will almost certainly be. On the other hand, Bernie Sanders’s victory extends the Democrats’ primary process further. Although Hillary Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite, that race isn’t over yet.

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Why Are My Investments Doing Badly?

May 4, 2016

I’ve had a lot of conversations recently about investment performance. Many people are reviewing their results, comparing them with what they expected and have received in the past, and asking themselves, Why are my investments doing so badly?

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Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2016

May 3, 2016

It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market, in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of that risk. Although the recent pullback is largely in the rearview mirror, given valuations and recent market behavior, it's still useful to keep an eye on these factors.

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Monday Update: Spring’s Not Here Yet

May 2, 2016

Once again, last week’s economic news was disappointing overall, with a few bright spots.

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Market Thoughts for May 2016 [Video]

May 2, 2016

Following a strong March, markets suffered a pullback in early April after analysts cut forecasts for first-quarter earnings growth and worries about the economy resurfaced. Though markets recovered, we were left wondering: was the pullback a sign of things to come, or will we see markets continue to move along?

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More Thoughts on Retirement Investing

April 29, 2016


Following up on yesterday’s post, let’s take a look at how the income approach to retirement investing might play out in practice. (I'd like to acknowledge David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, whose recent newsletter inspired this topic.)

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Thoughts on Building a Retirement Portfolio

April 28, 2016

Since I turned 50, the idea of investing for retirement has taken on significantly more relevance. Not that I plan on retiring soon, but there’s something about the big 5-0 that makes you think it might not be so far off.

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3 Prime Suspects in the Slow Economic Recovery

April 27, 2016

In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that lower government spending has been a big factor in the slow U.S. economic recovery. But it’s not the only culprit. Today, we'll take a look at three major headwinds to economic growth and whether they're likely to continue going forward.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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