This will be the penultimate post in our series on how to spot pending bear markets.

Although expensive valuations are a noted risk factor in past bear markets, they don’t give us much to go on timing-wise, as markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years.

Last week, we talked about several major warning signs for a bear market: recessions, commodity price spikes, rapid rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and high market valuations. In Friday’s Economic Risk Factor Update, we looked at the probability of a recession in the near future and concluded that it was unlikely.

Today, we’ll consider the next two risk factors: oil price spikes and Fed rate increases.

Last week’s data was more mixed than in recent weeks, with a very weak employment report and worse-than-expected results in the service sector offsetting continued positive news on manufacturing and consumer income and spending.

In yesterday’s post, we concluded that a recession is the biggest and most consequential indicator of a bear market. The next obvious question is, how can we spot a recession coming?

After an early pullback, improving economic news helped fuel a rally in U.S. indices at the end of May. While manufacturing remains a concern, improvements in consumer spending and housing have boosted confidence, prompting the Fed to suggest that the economy has normalized. Internationally, political risks continue to be a factor. And any bad news could well rattle the markets. What can we expect moving forward?

Yesterday we discussed what not to worry about, so today let’s take a look at what we, as investors, should be worrying about. In short, that would be a long-lived, substantial decline in the stock market—otherwise known as a bear market.

I’ve been giving a presentation recently, developed during the worst of the first-quarter stock market pullback, that discusses what we, as investors, should worry about and why. It may seem obvious, but in fact, most people tend to focus on the wrong things.

Last week’s data was more mixed than in recent weeks, with continued positive news in the housing market offset by weaker-than-expected results in business investment. On balance, both the strong trends in consumer demand and the relative weakness in business continue, and the economy was shown to have done better in the first quarter than was originally thought.

I’ve been struggling all morning, trying to decide what to write today. I could talk about oil prices. I could talk about the relationship between consumer confidence and wage growth (not as strong as you’d think). I could talk about the real risks we face as investors and what we should be worrying about.

I’m on the road today, traveling home from the Commonwealth Winners Circle conference in California. Besides hanging out with one of the nicest groups of people on the planet—the Commonwealth community—I got to have some fairly deep conversations about what financial advisors need, what investors need, and the problems both face in preparing for the future.