The Independent Market Observer

Why You Should Stop Worrying About Slow Growth

April 26, 2016

This afternoon, I’m speaking to a group of investors on the subject of worry—worry about the economy, about investments, and about meeting their financial goals. A couple of years ago, we were worried about high oil prices, China taking over the world, and a weak dollar, to name a few. Now, of course, we’re much wiser: we worry about low oil prices, Chinese collapse, and the strong dollar.

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Monday Update: Housing Data Weak But Momentum Still Positive

April 25, 2016

Last week’s economic reports were, once again, weaker than expected. Housing news was mixed, with industry sentiment remaining healthy but failing to improve while starts pulled back. On the other hand, sales of existing homes jumped, reversing a decline in the previous month.

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The Risk of Higher Oil Prices

April 22, 2016

oil pricesYesterday, I wrote that the U.S. economy, especially on the jobs side, remains basically healthy and even strong. At the same time, risks around the world seem to be receding. Chinese growth looks like it’s picking up, Europe also seems to be responding to central bank stimulus, and most of the things we were worried about over the past six months haven’t turned out so bad.

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The Employment Boom Is Pretty Much Here

April 21, 2016

For well over a year, I’ve been saying that job growth is not quite in a boom, but you can see one from here. After all that time, I think that we’ve largely arrived.

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New York Primary Results Should Help Reassure Markets

April 20, 2016

In my post last week about the election and financial markets, I wrote that it was too early to worry about what the candidates are likely to do if elected. That remains true, but the New York primary results suggest it’s not too soon to think about what the rest of the race might look like—and what that might mean for the economy and the markets.

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How Much More Expensive Can the Market Get?

April 19, 2016

After 15-percent pullbacks in both the first quarter and the middle of last year, the market is moving up toward new highs. The Dow just ticked above 18,000 for the first time since last July, and the S&P 500 is getting close to the 2,100 level, last seen in December. All-time highs are 18,351.36 for the Dow and 2,134.72 for the S&P 500, so we are getting close.

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Monday Update: Weaker Than Expected

April 18, 2016

Last week’s economic data was unexpectedly weak, with disappointing news on both retail sales and industrial production. Although forward-looking indicators are improving, the past week’s numbers suggest that the economy hasn’t yet moved beyond the slowdown.

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How High Are Taxes, Really?

April 15, 2016

At a conference last month, I had a discussion with a group of people who were deeply convinced that their taxes were as high as they’d ever been. I mentioned that solving the budget problems of the U.S. would require higher taxes—which wasn’t intended as a recommendation but simply a recognition of the math. The group maintained that it was impossible to raise taxes any further without crippling the economy.

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Economic Growth and the $15 Minimum Wage

April 14, 2016

I'm grateful for the many reader questions I've received recently—thank you all very much. Today, we’ll address another one: What does the prospective increase in the minimum wage mean for the economy, and how does that tie into recent slower growth in wages?

This is an excellent question, as it combines several important issues—hiring, wage growth, inequality, and economic growth— into one picture.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, April 13, 2016 [Video]

April 13, 2016

I was on CNBC’s Power Lunch today, talking with host Brian Sullivan about where the market can go from its current near-record high.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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