The Independent Market Observer

Another Look at the Long Run

February 22, 2017

Last week, we started thinking about what the long run really means for investors. It was a decent first cut, but the graphs I used to illustrate my point were not as useful as I had hoped. Today we’ll take a more numerical look at the argument.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumers Lead the Way

February 21, 2017

Last week’s flurry of economic data was generally positive, either coming in surprisingly strong or much better than it looked. Both rising prices and faster consumer spending growth reflected an improving economy.

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Thinking About the Long Run

February 17, 2017

As I wrote earlier this week, for investors, the difference between the short term and the long term is not as obvious as it would seem. Where does one end and the other begin?

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Why Isn’t Political Turmoil Shaking the Market?

February 16, 2017

I spend most of my time thinking about economics and the economy, but over the past several years, that has increasingly included a healthy side helping of politics.

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What a Difference a Year Makes

February 15, 2017

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” — George Santayana

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The Stock Market and Me: It’s Complicated

February 14, 2017

In honor of Valentine’s Day, I was going to write about how much I love the stock market. The more I thought about it, though, I realized that “It’s Complicated” is a more accurate description of our relationship. I do love the market, but we have issues.

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Monday Update: Plenty of Data This Week

February 13, 2017

Last week was light on economic data, and what news there was didn’t really move the needle. The recovery continues but at a slow pace, with improvements in sentiment moderating even as the fundamentals continue to get better.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, February 10, 2017 [Video]

February 10, 2017

What's behind the ongoing rally in the stock market? I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch this afternoon, explaining why I think equities are responding to fundamentals and growing consumer confidence, not, as some would suggest, to President Trump and his policies. 

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Long-Term Needs, Short-Term Focus

February 10, 2017

One of the emerging issues I see many investors grappling with is the short term/long term dichotomy.

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The Velocity of Money: 2017 Edition

February 9, 2017

Economic questions come in cycles. Recently, with the relatively hawkish tone of the Fed and the turmoil in Washington, DC, economic worries have spiked again, and the velocity of money has become a hot topic.

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