I host a call for advisors’ clients every quarter, and one of the most interesting parts is the questions I get from participants beforehand. They’re invariably cogent, thoughtful, and helpful in defining what I should be talking about—and what I may be missing in my own view of the world.

A question that’s come up in preparation for my call tomorrow concerns inflation—is it coming? If so, when, and how bad will it be?

Although the headline employment numbers look strong, some say that the underlying reality is actually a lot worse, with few full-time jobs and many discouraged workers. According to the skeptics, it’s a Potemkin recovery, dependent on the fact that many people have simply dropped out of the labor force.

I’ve written quite a bit recently about oil production and its benefits for the U.S. economy. A related topic I’ve been asked about, but haven’t addressed here, is where oil prices might be going.

In case you missed it, last Friday, July 11, I appeared on Fox Business Network's Countdown to the Closing Bell. Learn why my outlook for the markets has a bearish bent.

This week is the start of earnings season, when companies report their financial results for the previous quarter. After a difficult first quarter, many are looking to Q2 earnings to answer an important question: will things be as good as expected in the second half of the year? 

The release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes was a case of no news is good news.

Even after the weak first quarter, the Fed believes the economy is continuing to recover, and that the risks are now pretty much equally balanced between faster and slower growth. The discussion seems to have shifted from whether the recovery is valid to how quickly it’s moving—and the burden of proof is slowly shifting from those who want the Fed to back off to those who want it to keep stimulating.

Over the past several weeks, I’ve written a couple of times about the U.S. oil industry—specifically, how it’s becoming increasingly supportive of continued economic growth.

Following up on yesterday’s post, I want to take a more detailed look at the U.S. oil renaissance, and what it might mean for the country going forward.

I hope everyone had as much fun over the recent holiday weekend as my family did. Between picnics on the beach, a hike up a (small) mountain, lots of playing in the pool, and going to see How to Train Your Dragon 2, a great time was had by all.

Part of the whole Fourth of July ambience, of course, is reminding your kids that they live in the greatest country in the world. That’s very true in some ways; in others, not so much. But the holiday inspired me to revisit just how well positioned the U.S. is compared with other countries, and why we’re lucky to be living here.

The string of 200,000-plus employment reports just got a little longer.

The number at the end of last week—288,000 new jobs—far surpassed the expected level of 215,000. It’s also well above the figures for the preceding months, which were themselves strong. The consistency of the gains provides further support for their durability.

In this monthly series, I look at risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.

Although one potential problem area has emerged since last month’s update, most indicators continue to show improvement, and the overall economic forecast remains good. Headed into the July Fourth weekend, it looks like we’re cleared for more sunny weather!