The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Reasons to Look Beyond Cap-Weighted Indices

July 2, 2014

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all stock indices are not created equal.

Although capitalization-weighted indices are the most common, they’re not the only type of index out there. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, products based on nontraditional indices can offer investors broad exposure and low costs, along with the potential to outperform the usual indices.

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Market Thoughts for July 2014

July 2, 2014

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I talk about the revision to the first-quarter economic growth numbers and the current state of the U.S. and international markets. You'll also hear my thoughts on potential risks, including the situation in Iraq.

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Does Active Management Deliver Alpha?

July 1, 2014

Alpha—the excess return a money manager can generate, above and beyond the return due to general market effects—is an elusive beast.

It’s defined in opposition to beta, which reflects an investment’s tendency to respond to swings in the market. If your stock has a beta of 1, for example, it tends to move much as the market does. If the market rises 10 percent, and the stock goes up 10 percent (just as expected), how much credit should a manager get?

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Is the Stock Market Getting Overextended?

June 30, 2014

With all of the data out there—and all of the different takes on where the economy and financial markets are going—is there a warning sign that can tell us if the stock market is getting overextended?

I track several signals that are good economic indicators, but the stock market is tougher. There aren't any really good signals out there. Even the one I use most, the 200-day moving average, isn’t all that great.

One sign of a pending top, though, has become more apparent in recent weeks: investors are increasingly invoking 1999 to explain why the market is now reasonably priced.

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The Aereo Decision: In Praise of Content Creators

June 27, 2014

I have mixed feelings about the Aereo decision. 

If you haven’t heard, the Supreme Court ruled this week that Aereo—a company that uses multiple small antennas to capture TV broadcasts, which it then streams to subscribers over the web—violated copyright law.

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Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange

June 25, 2014

Learn why I told CNBC Worldwide Exchange that I think taking out protection against a deeper correction is a good idea at this point in an interview today, June 25

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What If the U.S. Set Oil Prices?

June 25, 2014

For decades now, the U.S. has essentially had to accept the oil prices set by world markets. Starting in 1973 with the OPEC-driven oil shock, the major producers have been foreign countries. If the U.S. wanted the oil, we had to pay the price.

But are things starting to change?

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Reasons to Worry About the VIX

June 24, 2014

Also known as the “fear index,” the VIX tends to stay low when investors are feeling confident and to spike when investors get scared. Technically, it reflects the volatility of the stock market—how much things bounce around—but on a practical level, it tends to mirror recent market performance.

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U.S. Ex-Im Bank: Should the Government Step Back?

June 23, 2014

A longstanding demand of much of the political class has been for the government to stop interfering in the economy.

The latest example of this is a statement by incoming House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, in response to a question about the U.S. Export-Import Bank: “One of the biggest problems with government is they go and take hard-earned money so others do things the private sector can do.”

As you might guess, McCarthy says he won’t support reauthorizing the bank’s charter.

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Picking Winners: The World Cup and Investing

June 20, 2014

The thing that interests me about the World Cup—besides the chance to watch elite players going all out—is how the results totally upend the usual global stories.

Looking at the Goldman Sachs projections for the tournament, the major powers (with the exception of Germany) are nowhere to be found. Combined, the U.S. and Russia have a 1.1-percent chance of winning it all. China isn’t even on the list. Japan is, but might as well not be. Ditto the UK.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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