The Independent Market Observer

New Records—and New Risks?

January 30, 2020

Two Fridays ago, the S&P 500 hit its closing record. About two weeks ago, the Dow cracked 29,000 for the first time. At the time, the headlines were all about how high the markets could go—and how quickly. But after the past couple of days, with the markets experiencing renewed volatility, we’ve started hearing much less about the new stock market records. Instead, the headlines are all about the risks, which certainly include the coronavirus, but also the impeachment trial and Brexit.

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Brexit Day Approaches: What Should We Expect?

January 29, 2020

After years of drama, headlines, predictions of doom, multiple elections, and so forth, we are finally (almost) there: Brexit day. On Friday, the British flag will be lowered outside European Union (EU) buildings as Britain formally exits the union. And so the post-Brexit world will begin.

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Sustainable Investing: The Capitalist Perspective

January 28, 2020

Brad here. One of the hot topics in investing is sustainability—expressed as either socially responsible investing (SRI) or environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing. Recently, major players have doubled down on their commitment to sustainability, although Commonwealth has been here for years. In this post, Peter Essele, vice president of investment management and research, gives a very good summary of what is happening—and what we are doing about it.

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Will the China Coronavirus Strike Investments?

January 24, 2020

One of the potential disruptors of the generally positive economic news surfaced in the form of a viral outbreak in China last week. Known as the coronavirus, as of this morning, there were 895 cases in mainland China (mostly in the Wuhan area) and 26 deaths, for a mortality rate of less than 3 percent. There were also at least 20 other cases around the world, including 1 case here in the U.S. The comparison that is being made is to the last major new disease from China, SARS, in 2003.

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Will the China Phase One Deal Spell the End of the Trade Wars?

January 23, 2020

With the recent signing of the phase one trade deal with China, the sense has been that everything is all set, and we can now move on. There is some truth to this belief, as the deal is better than nothing. Still, the agreement leaves many issues unresolved and even creates some new ones.

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NAFTA Versus the USMCA: What’s Different?

January 22, 2020

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is just about to be formally replaced by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). This news has generated both headlines and optimism in recent weeks, as a sign that progress can be made on trade issues. With the approval of the agreement by both the House and the Senate here in the U.S., and the pending signature by President Trump, it looks like the USMCA will become the law of the land very soon. But what does this mean?

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Could Atomic Habits Help You Reach Your Goals in 2020?

January 17, 2020

Brad here. There is a lot that goes in to investing. One of the underappreciated problems, though, is simply how to be most effective with the limited time and energy we have. Today’s post from Chris Stuart, a senior analyst in Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research group, looks at how we can do better at everything over time, which certainly applies to investing. I found his thoughts to be both interesting and helpful. I think you will, too.

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Repo Market Update

January 16, 2020

Brad here. When interest rates in the overnight lending market (known as the repo market) spiked in September, there was a real fear that it was a sign of something much worse. Commonwealth has been following this development closely, and recently we’ve been receiving another wave of questions. Nick Follett, manager of fixed income on our Investment Management and Research team, is here to explain what has happened since the spike and whether the risks are still real. Spoiler alert—they are not. Over to you, Nick!

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Value Is Growth, and Growth Is Value?

January 10, 2020

Brad here. One of the major discussions we have internally is how to allocate investments, with one of the biggest open questions being whether growth or value will do better going forward. Here is a detailed discussion of that by Chris Fasciano, a portfolio manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team. Our internal asset management team stewards more than $7 billion in client assets, and this is a rare chance to pull back the curtain and listen to the discussion. Over to you, Chris!

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Inflation Versus Wage Growth

January 9, 2020

Last week, a reader had an interesting question in response to the Homer Simpson economic video. He wondered, given the number of jobs that Homer Simpson has had and how compensation has changed over time, is there a good analysis of income versus inflation? I didn’t know of any such analysis, so I decided to come up with one. Since much of the analysis around this question is less than clear (to be frank), I also decided to use it as a primer on how to read through economic statistics. As always, caveat emptor!

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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