Most of today’s headlines center around the rapidly growing number of coronavirus cases here in the U.S., with some comment on the fact that the number of cases in Italy also continues to grow rapidly. Occasionally, we also get a note that case growth in China has largely stopped.

We have spent the past couple of days first looking at the coronavirus pandemic itself and then at the likely economic effects. Which brings us to the third part of our discussion: market reactions. Now, we have the context to look at what has happened and think meaningfully about what might happen next.

Yesterday, we talked about how the coronavirus pandemic itself can be brought under control, and how in many countries it already has been. Here in the U.S., we are not there yet, but we can reasonably expect to get there in the next month or so. That is the good news.

Yesterday, we talked about the big picture around the coronavirus crisis: the pandemic itself, the likely economic effects, and, last but certainly not least, the market reactions. Next, I want to start a more detailed discussion of each component. We will deal with the pandemic today, the economy tomorrow, and the markets on Friday. Although the big picture provides valuable context, there is also quite a bit to be gained by diving deeper into each component.

With everything that is happening in the world, now is a good time to step back and think about where we are and where we might be going. There is a tremendous amount of information available. But what’s missing is a framework for that information that would help clarify the big picture.

My son has a stuffed bear he got when he was quite small (from Commonwealth, as it happens). We used to play a game where the bear would sneak up on him. “Where bear? There bear!” Well, the bear is now here. We have finally seen the end of the bull market, with the Dow dropping 20 percent from its highs and the S&P 500 following today. We are officially in a bear market, with all that implies. Stock markets around the world are down again today on the news.

In early March, we saw markets drop worldwide. In fact, the 7.5 percent decline on March 9—which, coincidentally, happens to be the 11th anniversary of the bull market—was the largest since 2008. With a total decline of almost 19 percent, in less than a month, this certainly looks like a crash—doesn’t it?

In January, members of Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team traveled to Florida for the Inside ETFs conference, which has become the world’s largest conference on this topic. We met with and heard from industry experts and a number of ETF providers, and we networked with peers from other firms to discuss the latest trends within the ETF industry. Every year, a couple of topics seem to dominate the discussions. This year, without question, the two hottest topics were the emergence of nontransparent actively managed ETFs and the surge in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing.

Monday, March 9, will be the 11th anniversary of the bull market that started back in 2009. With recent pullbacks and turbulence around the coronavirus, it is reasonable to worry that this anniversary will be the last and that a bear market will break the streak sometime in the next year. As such, now seems a good time to consider where we stand—and where the market might be headed.

I know I am coming a bit late to the party on this, as there has already been a great deal of commentary and reaction to yesterday’s unexpected move by the Fed to cut interest rates by half a percentage point. Markets dropped after the announcement, but we are now seeing a strong rally. Pundits are on all sides of the issue. So, what’s really going on?