---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (55)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (55)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_3-1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/where-is-value-now)

## [Where Is Value Now?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/where-is-value-now)

July 21, 2020

*Brad here. “Value” is an often-mentioned word, but few people have really considered what it means in the context of the whole economy. A short while ago, Pete Essele, one of Commonwealth’s most senior portfolio managers, wrote a post for this blog in which he discusses value investing and its underperformance. That was the first part of the story. Here, he takes a deeper look at why that underperformance happened—with very interesting implications for the future. Take it away, Pete!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/where-is-value-now) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/where-is-value-now#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/HealthCare_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-far-medical-risks-not-derailing-economic-recovery)

## [So Far, Medical Risks Not Derailing Economic Recovery](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-far-medical-risks-not-derailing-economic-recovery)

July 16, 2020

This week’s update is somewhat worse than [last week’s](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-localized-viral-outbreaks-turning-into-a-national-threat). Medical risks are still rising. Outbreaks in several states (notably, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas) continued to get worse, even as other states began showing faster outbreaks.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-far-medical-risks-not-derailing-economic-recovery) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-far-medical-risks-not-derailing-economic-recovery#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/news-tablet.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-localized-viral-outbreaks-turning-into-a-national-threat)

## [Are Localized Viral Outbreaks Turning into a National Threat?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-localized-viral-outbreaks-turning-into-a-national-threat)

July 9, 2020

This week’s coronavirus update is pretty much the same as [last week’s](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-persists-despite-rising-risks). The medical risks are still rising. Outbreaks in several states (notably, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas) have continued to get worse. All have shown significant spikes in cases in recent days, and health care capacity is now a concern in some cities. Further, multiple other states are also seeing expanded case growth, although not yet at the levels of those four. At the national level, as of July 9, the number of new cases broke above 60,000 for the first time, and the daily spread rate is now at 2 percent per day. Similarly, even as the number of tests continues to rise, the positive rate is also increasing. The breadth and magnitude of the outbreaks continue to increase the risk at a national level.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-localized-viral-outbreaks-turning-into-a-national-threat) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-localized-viral-outbreaks-turning-into-a-national-threat#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Stock5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-value-premium-dead)

## [Is the Value Premium Dead?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-value-premium-dead)

July 8, 2020

*Brad here. Another question I have been getting repeatedly is whether value is dead. Just as with emerging markets, a long run of underperformance has raised this question. Is the situation different now? Peter Essele, one of Commonwealth’s most senior portfolio managers, is very well positioned to answer that question. Over to you, Pete!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-value-premium-dead) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-value-premium-dead#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2020)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in June and Ahead to July 2020](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2020)

July 7, 2020

June was a mixed month. The national reopening in May and June led to new viral outbreaks and a spike in new infections in multiple states. Surprisingly, though, both the economic recovery and financial markets did very well. As we enter July, the question of many minds is whether the medical situation will improve—and whether the good economic and market news will continue.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2020) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-june-and-ahead-to-july-2020#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/MarketOutlook_7.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-persists-despite-rising-risks)

## [Economic Recovery Persists Despite Rising Risks](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-persists-despite-rising-risks)

July 3, 2020

The bad news this past week is that the medical risks are still rising. Outbreaks in several states, notably Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas, have continued to get worse. All have shown significant spikes in cases in recent days, and health care capacity is becoming a concern in some cities. Multiple other states have also seen expanded case growth, although not yet at the levels of those four. At the national level, as of July 1, the number of new cases broke above 50,000 for the first time, and the daily spread rate is now approaching 2 percent per day. Similarly, even as the number of tests continues to rise, the positive rate is also increasing. The breadth and magnitude of the outbreaks continue to increase the risk at a national level.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-persists-despite-rising-risks) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-persists-despite-rising-risks#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/why-has-the-market-disconnected-from-the-pandemic)

## [Why Has the Market Disconnected from the Pandemic?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/why-has-the-market-disconnected-from-the-pandemic)

June 30, 2020

Right now, we seem to be seeing a disconnect between the rising case counts and the rising stock market. Yes, there was a bit of a pullback on the news that case growth was hitting a new high. But since then, the markets have started to bounce again, even as case counts continue to increase. I get many questions about this disconnect. Indeed, on the surface, it seems to make no sense. What is going on here?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/why-has-the-market-disconnected-from-the-pandemic) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/why-has-the-market-disconnected-from-the-pandemic#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-growth-picks-up-but-economic-reopening-continues)

## [Pandemic Growth Picks Up, But Economic Reopening Continues](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-growth-picks-up-but-economic-reopening-continues)

June 25, 2020

The bad news this past week is that the chances of a national second wave of infections are increasing as localized outbreaks in several states continue to get worse. The states in question are Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas, with the Carolinas also under pressure. All have shown significant spikes in cases in recent days. Multiple other states are also seeing expanded case growth, although not yet at the levels of those four. While the virus remains under control in many states, the breadth and magnitude of the outbreaks continue to increase the risk at a national level.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-growth-picks-up-but-economic-reopening-continues) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-growth-picks-up-but-economic-reopening-continues#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/green-shoots-for-international-equities)

## [Green Shoots for International Equities?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/green-shoots-for-international-equities)

June 24, 2020

*Brad here. One of the questions I have been hearing a lot recently is whether it still makes sense to invest in international stocks. Indeed, it is a good question. Here, Anu Gaggar, Commonwealth’s international analyst, provides a timely and compelling look at why international markets may still make sense in your portfolio. Thanks, Anu!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/green-shoots-for-international-equities) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/green-shoots-for-international-equities#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-this-the-second-wave)

## [Is This the Second Wave?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-this-the-second-wave)

June 23, 2020

COVID-19 case growth has spiked up recently in several states, taking the national case growth rate up above 30,000 per day for three of the past four days. So, do we have a second wave on our hands? And if so, what does that mean?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-this-the-second-wave) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-this-the-second-wave#comments-listing)

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- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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