The Independent Market Observer

How Should Investors React to the Coronavirus?

February 25, 2020

It is now clear that the coronavirus has escaped the attempted containment by Chinese authorities and has spread around the world. According to the World Health Organization, there are 79,331 confirmed cases, of which 77,262 are in China and 2,069 are outside of China (as of February 24, 2020). The two largest country clusters are in South Korea (with 232) and Italy (with 64). And many of those numbers seem to be on the rise, with the Washington Post reporting on February 24 that there were 833 confirmed cases in South Korea and 53 confirmed cases in the U.S.

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Young People in Fancy Cars

February 21, 2020

Brad here. When I was younger, I had the oldest, most beat-up car of any of my friends. It was a 1981 Toyota Celica that I bought in 1988 and kept until 1997. Yes, I am cheap. My colleague Tom Scarlata, of Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research group, is also cheap—which I applaud—as well as thoughtful. His observations and conclusions put some context around spending behaviors we see every day, but might not be thinking about enough. Thanks, Tom!

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Space Economics: The Final Frontier

February 20, 2020

Brad here. Besides being an economics geek, I am and always have been a science and space geek. As a human, I regard the growing presence of private enterprise in space as a significant breakthrough. As an investor, I’m more than excited by the opportunities presented by exploring space. On the other hand, as a cynic, I’m also very aware of the risks and concerns associated with expanding our boundaries. Tom Ryan of Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research department does a terrific job outlining the real opportunities, as well as the risks, of investing in the final frontier. Thanks, Tom—ad astra!

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Looking Too Far Ahead Can Leave Investors Far Behind

February 19, 2020

Brad here. One of the things we try to do as investors is see into the future. To some extent, we can—but not as much as we wish and often not as far as we think. In today’s post, Brian Glazer, a senior investment consultant here at Commonwealth, takes a look at how to keep those expectations under control.

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No Love for Retail Spending This Valentine’s Day

February 14, 2020

This morning, I stopped to get a card and balloon for my son for Valentine’s Day. I was shocked—once again—at how much the greeting card companies have monetized our need to be loving parents, spouses, and so forth. With these kinds of prices, you would think retail spending would have soared last month. Think again.

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Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2020

February 11, 2020

January was a tough month. We started with a U.S. attack on an Iranian general (creating thoughts of war) and ended with the possibility of a new global pandemic (with the Wuhan coronavirus spreading around the world). In between, of course, we had the impeachment spectacle here in the U.S., as well as the British exit from the European Union. All in all, it was quite a difficult month from a news perspective. Which made it somewhat odd that markets were not hit harder than they were.

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Searching for a Leading Economic Indicator

February 7, 2020

Brad here. Today, I’m pleased to introduce a post by Andrew Kitchings, a portfolio manager with Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team. Enjoy!

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Jobs Report Preview: Good News Ahead?

February 6, 2020

Tomorrow, we get the big one, the most (in my opinion) significant economic report of all: the jobs report. So, what should we expect?

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As Goes January, So Goes the Year?

February 5, 2020

The idea behind the old adage “as goes January, so goes the year” is this: if the market closes up in January, it will be a good year; if the market closes down in January, it will be a bad year. In fact, it is one of the more reliable of the market saws, having been right almost 9 times out of 10 since 1950. Last year, January saw gains of 7.9 percent for the S&P 500 (the best January since 1987), predicting a very good year. Indeed, that is just what we got.

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The View from the Aisle: Rosie’s Place

January 31, 2020

Here on the blog, Brad often writes about gratitude. The things he gives thanks for range from the seemingly trivial (watching his cats wrestle) to the profound (health, family, and happiness). Often, he mentions that he jots down three things for which he’s grateful every day. In reading these posts, what strikes the strongest chord with me is seeing things through the lens of “getting to” rather than “having to.” It has very much influenced how I try to navigate the intricacies of modern life and the stresses that come along with it. I get to go to work and do something I love. My wife suggested there’s another wrinkle to it and added “celebrate.” As in, I get to go to the gym and celebrate with 30 minutes on the treadmill. Sounds trite, but it helps.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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