With the Fed’s regular meeting concluding today, expectations are that the central bank will continue to provide whatever stimulus is necessary to keep the economy afloat. In conjunction with the federal government’s unprecedented multi-trillion dollar stimulus program, fears are rising that inflation is coming both fast and hard—and that we, as investors, need to plan now for this inevitability. I don’t believe it.

Brad here. Today, Nick Follett, manager of fixed income on our Investment Management and Research team, is here to discuss what's happening with bonds and the fixed income market. Over to you, Nick!

About one month ago, the bond market broke. Equities were down, as was fixed income—at exactly the time when you would expect and need it to be up. The 10-year U.S. Treasury, which started the year at 1.90 percent, fell from 1.10 percent (on March 2) to 54 basis points (bps) just one week later. There were concerns about every aspect of the financial system, from money market funds to the system itself. Indiscriminate selling forced down all fixed income classes as even the most liquid Treasuries, municipal bonds, and investment-grade corporates saw few if any buyers for the inordinate number of sellers.

Brad here. Today, my colleague Nate Parker, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, provides insights on the oil markets and why U.S. prices recently dropped into negative territory. Enjoy!

Today, I'd like to take another look at where we are with containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Since last week, there has been real progress on many fronts, although concerns remain.

Now that it looks like the coronavirus is starting to come under control (and I will do another update here tomorrow), it is time to think about what is coming next for the markets. We have had the fastest onset of a bear market in history, followed by the fastest recovery into a bull market in history. This kind of volatility is, well, historic. But since it is unprecedented, we can’t really look back at history for guidance as to what happens next.

Brad here. In today's post, Peter Essele, vice president of investment management and research, provides some perspective on the latest jobless claims numbers—and what we might expect going forward.

Some good news to report today: the coronavirus curve has been flattened. Now, you might wonder how I can say this when the cases continue to rise. In fact, no one has really come up with a definition of what “flattening the curve” means. So, from my perspective, it’s when the daily case growth rate declines enough that, despite the increased base of cases each day, the number of new cases declines. That scenario has now happened for several days in a row.

Things have quieted a bit (but only a bit) in terms of the coronavirus crisis. As such, I thought it would be a good time to provide an update on this evolving situation. Let’s start with the trends in the spread of the virus to understand what they mean in the present for the markets, as well as in the future for the pandemic itself and the economy.

Brad here. My colleague Nate Parker, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, takes over today to discuss investment in gold and historical trends in gold prices in volatile markets. Take it away, Nate!

March was a really tough month. After a terrible February, all major stock indices were down by double digits, leading to significant declines for the quarter as a whole. All of the major indices ended the month and quarter below their 200-day moving averages, often a sign of more trouble ahead. Plus, even the safe asset classes (fixed income and gold), which often benefit from these sorts of declines, had troubles of their own in March. Like I said, it was a really tough month.