---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (52)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (52)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Volatility/volatility-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-bounce-around-on-rising-medical-risks)

## [Financial Markets Bounce Around on Rising Medical Risks](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-bounce-around-on-rising-medical-risks)

September 24, 2020

Over the past week, the news on the medical front has been mixed. The pandemic remains under control, and the case growth rate remains low. But case growth has started to slowly increase again, as post-Labor Day infections begin to register and as schools and universities reopen.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-bounce-around-on-rising-medical-risks) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/financial-markets-bounce-around-on-rising-medical-risks#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Election/election-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-election-sink-the-markets)

## [Will the Election Sink the Markets?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-election-sink-the-markets)

September 23, 2020

Recently, I have been getting a number of questions from people who are scared about what might happen to the financial markets at election time. The fear is that if we get a disputed election, it could lead to disruption and possibly even violence. If so, we could well see markets take a significant hit.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-election-sink-the-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-election-sink-the-markets#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Volatility/volatility-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-volatility-in-the-forecast)

## [More Market Volatility in the Forecast?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-volatility-in-the-forecast)

September 22, 2020

As we have seen, markets have continued to decline throughout September. Despite some attempts to rally, we are now well below the peak at the start of the month. How worried should we be?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-volatility-in-the-forecast) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-volatility-in-the-forecast#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economic-Risk/econRisk-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-on-track-but-some-signs-of-weakness)

## [Economic Recovery on Track, But Some Signs of Weakness](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-on-track-but-some-signs-of-weakness)

September 17, 2020

The past week has seen the case growth rate remain low. But there are signs that the case count may be rising, as post-Labor Day infections start to register and as schools and universities reopen. While the pandemic remains under control, the steady improvement in both the case growth rate and case growth itself has paused and may be starting to falter. While the control measures are still working, conditions are changing.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-on-track-but-some-signs-of-weakness) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-recovery-on-track-but-some-signs-of-weakness#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-market-too-complacent)

## [Is the Market Too Complacent?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-market-too-complacent)

September 16, 2020

As a follow-up to yesterday’s post about how no one seems to be worrying about the [federal deficit](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-about-the-federal-deficit), I was having a conversation with a reporter this morning and found myself expanding on other things the market seems to have forgotten about. Yes, we have the pandemic and the U.S. recovery on the radar, but not the deficit. And once you start thinking about it, there are other issues out there that were rattling markets only last year. What about the pending hard Brexit, for example? What about the U.S.-China trade conflict and deals? What about the continued weakness of the energy sector? What about the rising pandemic costs in emerging markets? What about the growing conflict between Greece and Turkey (two NATO countries) in the eastern Mediterranean? And so on, and so on.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-market-too-complacent) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-market-too-complacent#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Volatility/volatility-c.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-about-the-federal-deficit)

## [What About the Federal Deficit?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-about-the-federal-deficit)

September 15, 2020

Recently, the number of questions I’ve been getting has been greater than usual. People are getting scared. It is not just about the pandemic, as that seems to be and is, at the moment, moving under control. Rather, people are worried about the election (and what that means for their portfolios), about the value of the dollar (and what that means for their portfolios), and about inflation (and what that means for their portfolios). The first concern comes up every four years, and the second and third are perennials, which appear whenever things look a bit dicey. No surprises here. But what is surprising is what’s missing: the questions about the federal deficit. This kind of uncertainty typically generates questions about what the deficit, and the debt, mean. Not this time.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-about-the-federal-deficit) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-about-the-federal-deficit#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Healthcare/healthcare-e.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-of-a-slowdown-in-the-economic-recovery)

## [Signs of a Slowdown in the Economic Recovery?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-of-a-slowdown-in-the-economic-recovery)

September 10, 2020

The past week has seen continued improvement, with the case growth rate down to new lows and case growth below 30,000 per day for the first time since June 21. The pandemic remains under control, and things are still getting better. The control measures are working.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-of-a-slowdown-in-the-economic-recovery) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/signs-of-a-slowdown-in-the-economic-recovery#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Volatility/volatility-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-turbulence-whats-going-on)

## [More Market Turbulence: What's Going On?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-turbulence-whats-going-on)

September 4, 2020

After a record-setting August, we are now seeing some market turbulence in September. Markets were down significantly yesterday and are headed lower today. What’s going on?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-turbulence-whats-going-on) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/more-market-turbulence-whats-going-on#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/2020-09-04_11-25-40.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-september-4-2020-video)

## [Coronavirus Update: September 4, 2020 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-september-4-2020-video)

September 4, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. We had good news on the medical front, as the pandemic remains under control. Case growth is down, and the case growth rate remains well below the lows seen in mid-June. Still, testing continues to be an area of weakness, and the possibility that school reopenings will lead to more infections is a concern.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-september-4-2020-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/coronavirus-update-september-4-2020-video#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/stock-mobile.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-news-continues-to-improve-along-with-the-economy)

## [Pandemic News Continues to Improve Along with the Economy](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-news-continues-to-improve-along-with-the-economy)

September 3, 2020

The good news is that the pandemic remains under control, with continued improvement. Case growth has gone down further over the past two weeks, and the case growth rate remains below the lows seen in mid-June. The control measures are working.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-news-continues-to-improve-along-with-the-economy) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pandemic-news-continues-to-improve-along-with-the-economy#comments-listing)

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- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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