---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (30)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (30)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/The-Fed/the-fed-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-driving-the-fed)

## [What’s Driving the Fed?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-driving-the-fed)

March 16, 2022

With the regular meeting of the Fed this week, there was a great deal of speculation about what it would do. As expected, the Fed pulled the trigger on a 25 bp interest rate hike. But what will happen next? What I expect from the statement, as well as the press conference, is that there will be similar hikes at every meeting for the rest of the year (data permitting) and that quantitative easing bond purchases will be wound down by the end of the year. In other words, I expect the Fed to follow up the rate hike with signals that it will continue normalizing policy, and I don’t expect that to be derailed by the Ukraine war.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-driving-the-fed) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/whats-driving-the-fed#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/stock-market-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/its-time-to-listen-to-the-markets)

## [It’s Time to Listen to the Markets](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/its-time-to-listen-to-the-markets)

March 15, 2022

Today’s post is going to be a short one because there is simply too much uncertainty right now to make a principled argument about pretty much anything. Interest rates have bounced back up to levels above 2 percent. Will they stay there? Depends on what happens in Ukraine. Stocks are staying somewhat below, but not far below, where they were when the invasion started. Will they go up or down? Pretty much depends on what happens in Ukraine. Oil prices, consumer confidence, inflation, and so forth are all pretty much the same story. We are all waiting on events.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/its-time-to-listen-to-the-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/its-time-to-listen-to-the-markets#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/inflation-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/sticker-shock-assessing-the-real-cost-of-gas)

## [Sticker Shock: Assessing the Real Cost of Gas](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/sticker-shock-assessing-the-real-cost-of-gas)

March 11, 2022

Have you experienced sticker shock at the pump recently? Chances are, you probably noticed a price hike the last time you topped off your tank. According to the Energy Information Administration, the price of conventional gasoline has risen 57 percent in the past year, and consumers are feeling the squeeze.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/sticker-shock-assessing-the-real-cost-of-gas) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/sticker-shock-assessing-the-real-cost-of-gas#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2022)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in February and Ahead to March 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2022)

March 8, 2022

After a terrible January for the markets, February continued the decline, with fears about inflation and Fed rate increases dominating the start of the month, only to be superseded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although the Covid-19 news continued to improve, by the end of the month, markets had moved on from medical risks to economic and geopolitical fears. Looking forward, those are the risks that are likely to dominate, as Covid-19, while still with us, has left both the headlines and, apparently, the markets.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2022#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-a-lesson-in-stakeholder-capitalism)

## [The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: A Lesson in Stakeholder Capitalism?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-a-lesson-in-stakeholder-capitalism)

March 4, 2022

It’s possible that the autocratic regime in Russia didn’t fully appreciate the power of stakeholder capitalism. In the wake of the invasion, stakeholders have clearly chosen sides—and they do not include the Kremlin. Corporations have responded, and many have decided to sever Russian ties through divestment. Shell and BP recently announced their intention to abandon their involvement in Russia. Further, Sberbank (Russia's largest lender) says it is leaving the European banking market in the face of Western sanctions against Moscow.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-a-lesson-in-stakeholder-capitalism) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-a-lesson-in-stakeholder-capitalism#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-d.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-and-retirement-portfolios)

## [Inflation and Retirement Portfolios](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-and-retirement-portfolios)

March 3, 2022

A question I have been considering, and which recent events have made more urgent, is what retired investors (or those close to retirement) should be thinking as they look at the inflation figures. Is there something they should be doing? If so, what?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-and-retirement-portfolios) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-and-retirement-portfolios#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/intl-markets-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-the-ukraine-invasion)

## [How to Think About the Ukraine Invasion](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-the-ukraine-invasion)

March 2, 2022

In recent posts, we’ve looked at both the fundamentals underlying [market response](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-mean-for-investors) to the Ukraine invasion, as well as the [historical data](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-ukraine-invasion-mean-for-your-portfolio) around similar events. The conclusions were generally reassuring to us as investors. Today, though, I want to do something a bit different. Rather than consider the specifics and what they might mean, I want to ask more general questions. How should we be thinking about this? And can we use that to draw any conclusions around the likely next developments?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-the-ukraine-invasion) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-think-about-the-ukraine-invasion#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-some-sectors-benefit-from-inflation)

## [Could Some Sectors Benefit from Inflation?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-some-sectors-benefit-from-inflation)

February 25, 2022

Recent equity market volatility is being partially attributed to potential Fed tightening, as the Fed has signaled a shift from an accommodative monetary policy stance to one that is more restrictive. It is doing so in response to the recent hot inflation reads and a rebound in inflation expectations. In general, equities are considered a hedge against inflation. Why, then, are equity investors so concerned? The reason is that not all equity sectors are created alike. Specifically, some can combat inflation and subsequent interest rate increases better than others.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-some-sectors-benefit-from-inflation) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-some-sectors-benefit-from-inflation#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economic-Risk/econRisk-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-ukraine-invasion-mean-for-your-portfolio)

## [What Does the Ukraine Invasion Mean for Investors' Portfolios?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-ukraine-invasion-mean-for-your-portfolio)

February 24, 2022

The next phase in the Ukraine crisis has begun, as Russia has launched attacks on Ukraine. With a war underway, it’s unsurprising that the markets are reacting. Before the market opened, U.S. stock futures were down between 2 1/2 percent and 3 1/2 percent, while gold was up by roughly the same amount. The yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury securities has dropped sharply. International markets were down even more than the U.S. markets, as investors fled to the more comfortable haven of U.S. securities.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-ukraine-invasion-mean-for-your-portfolio) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-ukraine-invasion-mean-for-your-portfolio#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economy/econ-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-mean-for-investors)

## [What Does the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Mean for Investors?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-mean-for-investors)

February 23, 2022

I have been holding off on commenting on the Russia-Ukraine conflict until some sort of resolution occurred. Lots of things could have happened, and we could drive ourselves crazy worrying about the possibilities. But now something has happened, and it is time to take a look.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-mean-for-investors) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-does-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-mean-for-investors#comments-listing)

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- [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01)
- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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