I have been writing this blog for going on 10 years now and have been in this business for longer than that, so I have been asked a lot of questions. They tend to come in cycles. At this point, unless something like the pandemic comes along, which really is new, they also tend to be variations on a theme.

Brad here. Over the past couple of weeks, I have been mentioning that I thought there’s a risk of a “heating” wave of the pandemic this fall in the northern states, following the “air conditioning” wave we saw in the southern states this past summer. I discussed it as a reasonable risk and something to keep an eye on, but my colleague and friend Pete Essele has gone well beyond that and done the work here to establish in detail both what happened over the summer and what that could mean for the fall and winter. Definitely worth a read! Great job Pete and thank you.

“If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there.”—Oft-cited paraphrase of exchange between the Cheshire Cat and Alice in Lewis Carroll’s classic children’s tale, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland

It’s been a while, but it’s time for another COVID update. Compared with a month ago, the medical situation continues to improve, which is good news, although there are reasons to be concerned over the next month or two. The economic news, however, continues to be uncertain. Job growth has slowed substantially in the past couple of months, and confidence remains below the peaks. While markets have continued to do well (as I write this, they are approaching new highs again), there has been volatility and more is likely as we approach year-end.

Following up on some of my previous posts, it seems clear that something has changed in the workplace. That somehow, the consensus that dominated both employers and workers pre-pandemic has now broken. The question is, what could that be? Will it go back to where it was? Or will this new world of labor shortages due to people choosing not to work persist?

I’ve gotten a lot of positive feedback on yesterday’s post (thank you!) on how we should be kind, to others and ourselves, given the unprecedented and long-lasting conditions we have been fighting. As I thought more about it, I realized it also resonated with one of the key economic issues we are seeing today: the decision by millions of people to simply drop out of the labor force. The headlines today have multiple references to how people are simply choosing not to work and wondering when, and if, that will change.

This will be a short update as I am in the airport headed home from Commonwealth's Founder’s Club conference. As usual, it was a wonderful experience—good company, great activities, and a spectacular setting. But what struck me at this conference, in particular, was the value of personal contact.

Given the overarching role of the U.S. in the world economy, it is no surprise that when the Fed sneezes, central banks around the world catch a cold. During the so-called taper tantrum of 2013, the Fed’s unexpected talk of plans to slow down its bond purchase program resulted in higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, which caused the capital pipelines of emerging markets to freeze. Today, with a tenuous global recovery underway and the threat of the pandemic hanging on, central banks around the world are watching the actions of an increasingly hawkish Fed with hawk eyes (no pun intended). At the same time, we’re seeing global policy divergences as economies emerge from the pandemic environment at different speeds and face different challenges. For investors, this environment could present country-specific opportunities in fixed income, equities, and currencies.

I got a question last week that I thought was excellent: how does climate change do when we apply the same set of crisis tests we did to Evergrande and the great financial crisis (GFC)? It may seem to be a political question—and quite possibly it was intended as such. But in my mind, applying this set of nonpolitical tests is a great way to take it out of the realm of politics, where I have no special expertise, and into the realm of economics and data analysis, where I do. Today, let’s take a nonpolitical look, based on the data, at whether climate change is something that we, as investors, should be keeping an eye on.

I watch sports only occasionally, but in the past year or two, I have gotten increasingly into watching pro football—probably as a result of being bored at home during the pandemic and the drama around the turn of the Patriots dynasty. I have to admit, there are some terrific athletes out there. There’s Brady, of course, but many others as well. It has been great to come back to something I enjoyed as a kid.