The Independent Market Observer

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2015

July 8, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

Heading into July, though, the economic forecast remains sunny.

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The Chinese Stock Market Decline: What It Could Mean for the U.S.

July 7, 2015

As I mentioned yesterday and in my monthly Market Thoughts video, I’m worried about Greece, but in many ways, I’m more concerned about China. We know about China’s slowing economy and the need to transition from infrastructure- and export-led growth to consumer-driven growth, but these are long-term trends and were basically going well.

What’s new—and worrying—is the boom and subsequent plunge in the Chinese stock market.

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Monday Update: U.S. Solid, Greece and China Rock Markets

July 6, 2015

Starting today, I’m introducing a new format for my Monday posts, briefly highlighting key stories from the past week plus items to watch in the week ahead. Of course, I’ll continue to provide more detailed analyses of major topics throughout the week, as situations develop.

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Market Thoughts for July 2015 [Video]

July 6, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss recent difficulties in the U.S. financial markets, as well as ongoing problems in Greece and China. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance in June.

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The Truth Behind the 7-Year Market Cycle

July 2, 2015

One of the things I’ve been meaning to do this summer is take an analytical look at the Shemitah, a quasi-biblical prophecy that predicts a crisis every seven years—which means the U.S. is due for “financial ruin” this year.

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Could What’s Happening with Greek Banks Happen Here?

July 1, 2015

Yesterday, a reader wrote in with a question about what might happen to a U.S. citizen’s deposit in a Greek bank. I don’t have the answer, but the question made me think about U.S. bank deposits, which led me to imagine what the next wave of doom-and-gloom commentary here in the U.S. might be.

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U.S. Stock Market: Should You Be Worried?

June 30, 2015

Yesterday wasn’t a good day for the stock market—anywhere. When I wrote yesterday’s post, the U.S. markets were only off by a bit. But the drop later in the day looked like it might be a bad sign; at a little over 2 percent, it was the largest one-day dip in some time.

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U.S. Economy Grows, Greek Debt Default Looms

June 29, 2015

The headlines this morning are all about Greece, as they should be. But to put things in context, let’s first go back to recent economic news here in the U.S. In order to understand what the Greek crisis means to us, we have to understand where the U.S. economy is today.

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What Happens to My Bond Investments When Rates Rise?

June 26, 2015

Today’s post is from my colleague Peter Essele, portfolio manager in Commonwealth’s Investment Management group. See you next week! — Brad

I’d say that nine out of ten questions I’ve fielded recently are some variation on the title of this post. Many people seem to think that the impending rise in rates will have a kind of snowball effect on bond markets—that rising rates will lead to price declines on bond strategies, which will lead to outflows, followed by more price declines due to forced selling, and then more outflows.

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Why Greece Matters

June 25, 2015

The topic of the day, once more, is Greece. Frankly, I’m sick of writing about Greece, and I’m sure everyone involved in the negotiations, including the Greeks, is even more tired of the whole thing than I am.

Here's the question: Why do we all continue to bother? What makes Greece worthy of such continued attention?

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