August 10, 2015
Last week was a good one for the economy. The data released met expectations and, in many cases, substantially exceeded them. Overall, accelerating growth seems likely in the second half of the year, and first-half growth may turn out better than the initial reports suggested.
August 7, 2015
Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve written about various headwinds the economy faces—among them, slow wage growth, a decline in consumer confidence, slow consumer spending growth, and declining business investment. All of these are real issues, and ones that have held the economy back over the past quarter.
At the same time, there’s been encouraging news this past week that suggests the slowdown, as last year, was temporary, and that faster growth is ahead.
August 6, 2015
Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.
For the first time in a while, there have been significant changes in two indicators—one encouraging and one more worrisome—but overall, conditions remain favorable.
August 5, 2015
In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the U.S. and developed markets' recent bounce back after a difficult June. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance, highlighting positive developments in the labor market.
August 4, 2015
Back in February, I looked at U.S. market valuations based on several different metrics, concluding that valuations were quite high—at or above the levels that prevailed before major corrections.
August 3, 2015
Slow but steady was the theme for last week. Although economic growth continues, the pace has not yet accelerated.
Despite some areas of concern, last week’s data was positive on the whole, showing continued moderate growth.
July 31, 2015
With oil prices down as much as they are, many investors are asking whether now is the time to buy. “Buy low, sell high” makes a lot of intuitive sense, and with prices low, buying looks like a good move.
July 30, 2015
In the past 24 hours, there have been two pieces of news that tell us a great deal about the economy today and also show us how things are likely to evolve over the next year or so.
July 29, 2015
In my post on Friday, I noted that employment is, in many ways, approaching boom times. Although it’s not there yet—the proportion of part-time jobs and the level of high-paying jobs continue to be concerns—employment is moving in the right direction and doing so at an increasing rate.
The missing piece here has been wage inflation. If things are so good, why aren’t we all making more money?
It turns out that China’s stock market remains a market after all, despite the Chinese government’s best efforts. Prices on the Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.5 percent on Monday and another 1.7 percent Tuesday, stripping away more than half of the gain since the last bottom.
