The headlines this morning are all about the Greek debt deal that European leaders hammered out over the weekend. Good news, I suppose, but as usual, the devil is in the details.
July 13, 2015
The headlines this morning are all about the Greek debt deal that European leaders hammered out over the weekend. Good news, I suppose, but as usual, the devil is in the details.
Last week was relatively quiet in U.S. economic news, but the news we did get was generally encouraging. Once again, the top stories came from abroad, as China’s market stabilized and Greece moved closer to exiting the eurozone before reaching a deal over the weekend.
July 10, 2015
Every year or so, I do a postmortem of my analyses and predictions in order to figure out where I was wrong, and how to avoid making those mistakes in the future—a useful, albeit uncomfortable, exercise. One of the biggest mistakes I’ve made in the past decade has been to underestimate the power of governments to influence markets.
Yesterday was a rough one for financial markets across the board. China’s markets dropped again, U.S. markets fell in sympathy, and the New York Stock Exchange shut down with technology problems. It’s the end of the world as we know it!
Or maybe not. Although there are reasons for concern, U.S. investors shouldn’t be too worried—as long as they’ve planned ahead for an eventual downturn.
July 8, 2015
Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.
Heading into July, though, the economic forecast remains sunny.
As I mentioned yesterday and in my monthly Market Thoughts video, I’m worried about Greece, but in many ways, I’m more concerned about China. We know about China’s slowing economy and the need to transition from infrastructure- and export-led growth to consumer-driven growth, but these are long-term trends and were basically going well.
What’s new—and worrying—is the boom and subsequent plunge in the Chinese stock market.
Starting today, I’m introducing a new format for my Monday posts, briefly highlighting key stories from the past week plus items to watch in the week ahead. Of course, I’ll continue to provide more detailed analyses of major topics throughout the week, as situations develop.
July 6, 2015
In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss recent difficulties in the U.S. financial markets, as well as ongoing problems in Greece and China. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance in June.
July 2, 2015
One of the things I’ve been meaning to do this summer is take an analytical look at the Shemitah, a quasi-biblical prophecy that predicts a crisis every seven years—which means the U.S. is due for “financial ruin” this year.
Yesterday, a reader wrote in with a question about what might happen to a U.S. citizen’s deposit in a Greek bank. I don’t have the answer, but the question made me think about U.S. bank deposits, which led me to imagine what the next wave of doom-and-gloom commentary here in the U.S. might be.
Episode 11
September 10, 2025
Episode 10
August 13, 2025
Episode 9
July 23, 2025
Episode 8
June 18, 2025
Episode 7
May 14, 2025
The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.
Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.
The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.
One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.
The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.
The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.
Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.
Member FINRA, SIPC
Please review our Terms of Use.
Commonwealth Financial Network®