The Independent Market Observer

Good Economic News May Not Curb Market Turbulence

August 27, 2015

If you’ve been reading my posts over the past week, you’ve probably noticed a key theme: despite ongoing market turbulence, U.S. economic fundamentals remain strong.

Today’s data underlined that point again. Economic growth for the second quarter was revised up substantially, from 2.3 percent to 3.7 percent—not only above expectations, at 3.2 percent, but beyond the higher end of the range of estimates.

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The Market’s Downside Risk: How Much Further Could It Fall?

August 26, 2015

After the decline at the end of the day yesterday, I’m getting more concerned about the next couple of weeks in U.S. markets. Although fundamentals remain strong, there appears to be a bigger break in confidence that could well lead to further downward movements.

Let’s take a look at where the market might be headed.

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Appearance on Varney & Co., August 24, 2015 [Video]

August 26, 2015

As the markets experienced significant declines on Monday after China sparked a global sell-off, I was on the phone with Stuart Varney, host of Fox Business Network's Varney & Co. Is the situation really as bad as it looks? Hear what I had to say. 

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Economic News Holding Steady

August 25, 2015

Given everything that happened yesterday, I skipped my regular Monday Update to discuss the turmoil in the markets. Today, let’s return to the economic stats, as they shed more light on my theme from yesterday—that U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid.

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As Market Fears Grow, Stay Focused on the Long Term

August 24, 2015

One bad day doesn’t make a bear market. Two bad days, however, and the prospect of more to come, may well signal one.

Bear market is a scary term, and the past several days have certainly given investors cause for concern. Rather than spend time worrying, though, let’s try to understand what has happened and what it means for our long-term financial goals.

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Appearance on Mornings with Maria, August 20, 2015 [Video]

August 24, 2015

As the price of crude oil dropped precipitously last week, nearing another post-financial-crisis low, I joined Maria Bartiromo on the set of her Fox Business Network show, Mornings with Maria, to discuss whether now might be a good time to start investing in the energy sector and how to go about doing so. 

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Market Reality Check: Yesterday’s Big Decline

August 21, 2015

Thursday was rough for financial markets, especially here in the U.S., and it looks like the damage is continuing elsewhere in the world today. As I write this, Asian and European markets are down, with China getting hit particularly hard, and U.S. markets are off slightly. 

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The Fed: Much Ado About (Pretty Much) Nothing

August 20, 2015

Will the Fed start to raise rates in September?

Economists and market watchers have been debating that question for months, concluding that September was a pretty safe bet. That got boring, though, so we took a couple of opportunities—the weak inflation report this week, the Chinese yuan devaluation, yesterday’s release of the July Fed minutes—to reopen the debate.

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Housing: A Return to Normalcy

August 19, 2015

The great financial crisis of 2008 was, of course, ultimately a financial crisis, but the proximate cause was housing. As of the mid-2000s, you may remember, the general consensus was that housing prices couldn’t go down nationally because, well, it had never happened before. 

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China's Bubble Trouble

August 18, 2015

The news today is that the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed down another 6.5 percent, despite substantial support from the Chinese government. Given the market’s earlier declines and China’s surprise currency devaluation, the latest plunge suggests more trouble ahead.

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