October 6, 2015
Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.
We have actually seen some moves worth watching since last month, with signs of slowing, although the overall take remains positive.
October 5, 2015
Although last week started reasonably strong, it ended with a severe disappointment. This Monday update takes a closer look at the economic data.
October 2, 2015
In yesterday’s post, I reviewed the market data—including valuations, changes in margin debt, and changes in the market cap as a percentage of GDP—for some potential signals of a market crash. All seemed to provide valuable insight but were certainly not definitive. Part of the problem is that these signals can give false alarms or give correct signals that nonetheless result in only minor downturns. So, another set of filters is needed to help refine the analysis.
October 2, 2015
In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss recent declines in U.S. and international markets, spurred by a slowdown in growth and declining consumer confidence. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance, highlighting an increase in consumer spending.
October 1, 2015
In a continuation of my post from yesterday, I am not aware of any single indicator that can tell us when a market crash will occur. (I wish I were!) So, what I have done is reviewed previous significant market downturns and determined some common contributory factors that make sense in theory, as well as empirically.
September 30, 2015
I gave a talk last night to a group of clients, part of which included a discussion of the possible reasons behind recent market turbulence. Afterwards, a client asked me what else, beyond what I had discussed, could have caused the downturn? I thought that was an interesting way to look at how we as investors should watch markets.
September 29, 2015
Yesterday was another rocky day for U.S. markets, with substantial declines across all major indices. It brought us close to the lows of late August, and the question now is, will we go lower this time?
September 28, 2015
Last week’s data was mixed, but on the whole it wasn’t too bad. Let’s take a closer look at the economic news.
September 25, 2015
The Fed seems to realize that the message markets took from last week’s decision not to raise rates was not, in fact, the one it wanted to send. Since that decision was announced, we have seen statements from several committee members making the case that it was a “close call” and that a rate increase is still in the cards this year—probably in an attempt to mitigate the markets’ worries. What has been missing, though, is some indication of what the most important member, the chair, thinks about the whole thing. Now we know.
September 24, 2015
Although growth in the U.S. continues at a reasonable rate, there are undeniable signs of a more global slowdown, especially in China. Even though we are doing reasonably well, the slowdown in the rest of the world does affect us.
