Whenever I’m asked about investing—whether the market is likely to go up or down, what sectors to look at, and so forth—there’s one question I always ask before responding: What is the desired time frame? In my view, time frame is inseparable from any kind of reasonable response.

When markets rose after the Fed hinted at a potential rate hike in December, it made me rethink my expectations for the remainder of 2015. Will it be a double-digit year for stocks after all? I shared my views during an appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch program on Tuesday.

I’m at an investment conference today and tomorrow, so I will just offer some quick thought on several topics that don’t really warrant a full post.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss why October turned out to be a great month, despite being preceded by a terrible third quarter. Some highlights include consumer spending, personal income, and external influences on the ongoing recovery.

I’m working on my 2016 outlook right now—yes, a couple of months before it actually gets here—and am struggling to focus on what will be most important. Developing an idea about the future requires first identifying the most important issues, then making some decisions about how they are likely to evolve, and finally trying to tie them all together.

Last week was a busy one for economic data. And the numbers, which I’ll cover in this Monday update, along with expectations for this upcoming period, continued to show the effects of a slowdown in the third quarter.

Yesterday, the quarterly growth figure for the economy as a whole, known as gross domestic product (GDP), came out at 1.5 percent. This figure was in line with expectations but was nevertheless disappointing since it declined from 3.9 percent in the second quarter. This gives rise to certain questions: Why did the GDP decline, and is this is a harbinger of future trouble?

As I wrote on Monday, no one expected anything of substance from the Federal Reserve. But, once again, the Fed surprised us. The September meeting was a trick, when it chose not to raise rates. But the October meeting looks like it may end up being a treat. I don’t mean in a policy way (rates remained unchanged, as expected). Instead, the Fed has very explicitly ruled out economic risks to the extent that a rate increase for December—which most had written off—is back on the table.

In case you’ve forgotten, the Treasury Department has said that, as of November 3 (that’s five days from now), it will no longer have the money to pay all the bills that come due. That could lead to a U.S. default on its obligations, which could be a big deal.

Fortunately, Washington has now taken a step toward a solution.

It’s surprising how worries come and go. Not that long ago, there was a real fear that China could—by dumping its vast store of U.S. Treasury bonds on the market—drive rates up and cripple the U.S. economy. As China’s economy has weakened, however, we haven’t heard so much of that, and worries have shifted to other ways that China could tank the world economy. But, in fact, could this be a more serious issue now than it was then?