The Independent Market Observer

The Presidential Election and Free Trade

March 9, 2016

Today’s economic news comes straight from the campaign trail, but it might not be the news you think. The big story is that opposition to free trade is now a major vote winnerand an issue that stands to affect the policies of both parties.

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The Stock Market: Reasons for Optimism

March 8, 2016

As the market creeps back up, investors may be inclined to doubt the recovery. After all, there must have been a reason for the pullback we just saw. Couldn’t stocks drop again for the very same reason?

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Monday Update: Signs of Spring

March 7, 2016

Last week’s economic news was very good, with all major releases beating expectations.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2016

March 4, 2016

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. After flashing a yellow light for the last several months, the change in consumer confidence indicator has declined even further, moving closer to the worry zone. Some signs of weakness are also appearing in other areas, such as the yield curve indicator.

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Looking for the Next Crisis

March 3, 2016


I am traveling today, speaking to investors, and during the discussion after my presentation, a question arose: where will the next financial/economic crisis be?

We’ve talked about many different risks but not about where the next systemic crisis might come from. It’s a question worth considering.

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Monthly Market Risk Update

March 2, 2016

Today, I’m launching a new monthly feature on key market risk factors. I’ve written on this topic from time to time, but given recent market conditions and behavior, I think it’s useful to review these factors on a regular basis.

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Market Thoughts for March 2016 [Video]

March 2, 2016

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the markets and economy in February, which was turning out to be a scary month before a late rally left the market flat. Why did the pullback happen, what caused the recovery, and what does the future hold?

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It’s All About the Jobs

March 1, 2016

The market’s movements continue to raise a lot of questions. After the decline to start the year and the ongoing recovery, does the market really have any idea where it’s going?

In the short term, the answer is no.

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Monday Update: Watch What Consumers Do, Not What They Say

February 29, 2016

Last week’s economic news was generally good, despite some signs of weakness. Data showed consumers making and spending money, more signs of stabilization in industry, and continued growth in housing.

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Using Analysis to Improve Lives

February 26, 2016

I’m just back from the Commonwealth Chairman’s Retreat conference, trying to digest all I learned there. I usually come away with at least one idea that has the potential to change my life for the better, and this year it was the concept of purpose.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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