Last week’s economic news was very good, with all major releases beating expectations.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. After flashing a yellow light for the last several months, the change in consumer confidence indicator has declined even further, moving closer to the worry zone. Some signs of weakness are also appearing in other areas, such as the yield curve indicator.

I am traveling today, speaking to investors, and during the discussion after my presentation, a question arose: where will the next financial/economic crisis be?

We’ve talked about many different risks but not about where the next systemic crisis might come from. It’s a question worth considering.

Today, I’m launching a new monthly feature on key market risk factors. I’ve written on this topic from time to time, but given recent market conditions and behavior, I think it’s useful to review these factors on a regular basis.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the markets and economy in February, which was turning out to be a scary month before a late rally left the market flat. Why did the pullback happen, what caused the recovery, and what does the future hold?

The market’s movements continue to raise a lot of questions. After the decline to start the year and the ongoing recovery, does the market really have any idea where it’s going?

In the short term, the answer is no.

Last week’s economic news was generally good, despite some signs of weakness. Data showed consumers making and spending money, more signs of stabilization in industry, and continued growth in housing.

I’m just back from the Commonwealth Chairman’s Retreat conference, trying to digest all I learned there. I usually come away with at least one idea that has the potential to change my life for the better, and this year it was the concept of purpose.

I don’t normally write about politics. Although it’s an essential part of market and economic analysis, the connections are indirect and take time to show up, making daily or even monthly commentary not very relevant.

Politics is also fairly loose, in that what politicians say has little relation to what they actually intend to do, and what they intend to do has little relation to what actually gets done.

In yesterday’s post, we discussed how the common perception of the oil price decline is significantly out of line with reality. It is just this kind of mismatch that has, historically, created opportunities. Another mismatch situation—with the dollar—offers similar potential.