As I’ve said many times lately, I do not believe we’re heading for a repeat of 2008–2009.

A number of factors—a stronger U.S. economy, a less leveraged financial system and consumer, and an absence of imbalances like we saw with housing—suggest that we’re not in for a 2008-style collapse. Although the economy may be entering a slowdown, growth is likely to continue.

The economy is doing better than last week’s headline numbers would suggest, and we'll find out this week just how much better that is.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. For the third month in a row, the consumer confidence indicator is flashing a yellow light. Despite some improvement last month, the data has declined again, which is worrying.

As always happens in times of uncertainty, the doomsayers are back.

Not that long ago, they were predicting that destructive Federal Reserve policy would lead to the collapse of the economy and the downfall of the dollar. After being proven wrong on those fronts, they’ve returned with a new story: that the drop in oil prices will be the undoing of the U.S. economy.

After speaking recently at the Economic Club of Marquette County, Michigan, I sat down with Don Ryan, host of The Ryan Report, for an in-depth interview on the markets and expectations for 2016.

One of the most interesting (and surprising) pieces of news on the economics front has been the Bank of Japan’s decision to take rates to negative levels—in other words, to charge depositors to keep their money in the bank. This is not an unprecedented move, as negative rates have been in place for a while in some European countries, but it’s still somewhat unusual.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss January's dismal market performance, which was the worst we’ve seen since the financial crisis. Why did it happen? Is it likely to get worse? And what can we do about it?

The first sentence of my market update for last January went like this: “U.S. stock markets dropped across the board in January, as investors reassessed their risk tolerances.” Sound familiar? I went on to note that the primary concerns were slow earnings growth, caused by weakness elsewhere in the world, and a strong dollar. Again, does that ring a bell?

Overall, last week’s data reflects an ongoing split in the U.S. economy, with consumers and the service sector doing well while manufacturing and industry continue to struggle. 

As expected, this morning’s GDP report wasn't cause for celebration. The initial estimate of economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year came in at 0.69 percent on an annualized basis—well below the previous quarter’s figure of 1.98 percent and even further below the fourth quarter of 2014, which posted growth of 2.07 percent.