The Independent Market Observer

The Election and the Financial Markets

April 13, 2016

Along with Puerto Rico, the other topic readers have been inquiring about is the presidential race and the effect on the markets. Yesterday, someone asked whether she should go to cash until the political uncertainty settles down. The short answer is no, but the question itself speaks to just how concerned people are about politics.

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Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis: Much Ado About Not Much

April 12, 2016

Per a reader's request, today we'll talk about the impact of the current debt crisis in Puerto Rico. Not only is this a major issue for the Puerto Ricans and their investors, but it also sheds light on how similar crises are likely to play out in the future.

You might want to pay attention to this movie, because you will be seeing it again over the next several years—probably more than once.

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Appearance on TheStreet, April 10, 2016 [Video]

April 11, 2016

Is Wall Street in for a pleasant surprise during this quarterly earnings season? I recently sat down with Rhonda Schaffler, anchor of TheStreet TV, to discuss earnings expectations and the economy.

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Monday Update: More Slow Progress

April 11, 2016

Once again, last week’s economic news was relatively positive.

Although the industrial sector continued to struggle, manufacturing showed further signs of stabilization, and the service sector actually improved. Net exports continued to be a weak point, driven by economic weakness abroad. (The Federal Reserve highlighted this as the major source of risk in the March meeting minutes.) Nonetheless, the fundamentals continued to show slow improvement, suggesting that the economy is moving out of the slowdown of the past two quarters.

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Where Will Economic Growth Come From?

April 8, 2016

I wrote yesterday that economic growth has historically been significantly affected by the growth of the population, and how that offers some (but not a lot) of encouragement over the next 10 years. It will help, but not as much as we need.

Another way to look at recent economic growth is to consider where that growth came from, and to see whether those trends offer any prescriptions for how we can accelerate the economy.

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Everybody's Worried About Growth

April 7, 2016

As you can see from the clip I posted earlier today, I spent yesterday in New York. One of the things I try to get from these days in the field is to identify overarching concerns and themes, and this time that was easy. The main concern of almost everyone was growth—growth in the economy, growth in earnings, and growth in general.

Time after time, I got the same question: where is the growth going to come from?

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Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, April 6, 2016 [Video]

April 7, 2016

Yesterday afternoon, I was on CNBC's Closing Bell from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, forecasting earnings to come and discussing current market conditions with hosts Bill Griffith and Kayla Tausche. 

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Stock Market Earnings Priced for Disaster (But Not to Worry)

April 6, 2016

We're heading into earnings season, when companies announce how much they made last quarter. This is when I start reviewing current market expectations and how they relate to the fundamentals.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2016

April 5, 2016

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. On the whole, some of the worrying downward movement has reversed, suggesting that risks may be starting to retreat. The change in consumer confidence metric remains below zero, but even that may be stabilizing. We’re also seeing some signs of stabilization in other areas, such as the yield curve indicator.

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Monday Update: Slow but Real Economic Improvement

April 4, 2016

Last week’s economic news was positive overall.

Consumers continued to save rather than spend, but signs of increasing confidence suggest that may change. U.S. business, on the other hand, signaled widely improving confidence, especially in the industrial and manufacturing sector. Finally, employment growth continues strong and is starting to attract discouraged workers back into the labor force even faster—a very encouraging development.

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