The Independent Market Observer

Thoughts on Building a Retirement Portfolio

April 28, 2016

Since I turned 50, the idea of investing for retirement has taken on significantly more relevance. Not that I plan on retiring soon, but there’s something about the big 5-0 that makes you think it might not be so far off.

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3 Prime Suspects in the Slow Economic Recovery

April 27, 2016

In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that lower government spending has been a big factor in the slow U.S. economic recovery. But it’s not the only culprit. Today, we'll take a look at three major headwinds to economic growth and whether they're likely to continue going forward.

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Why You Should Stop Worrying About Slow Growth

April 26, 2016

This afternoon, I’m speaking to a group of investors on the subject of worry—worry about the economy, about investments, and about meeting their financial goals. A couple of years ago, we were worried about high oil prices, China taking over the world, and a weak dollar, to name a few. Now, of course, we’re much wiser: we worry about low oil prices, Chinese collapse, and the strong dollar.

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Monday Update: Housing Data Weak But Momentum Still Positive

April 25, 2016

Last week’s economic reports were, once again, weaker than expected. Housing news was mixed, with industry sentiment remaining healthy but failing to improve while starts pulled back. On the other hand, sales of existing homes jumped, reversing a decline in the previous month.

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The Risk of Higher Oil Prices

April 22, 2016

oil pricesYesterday, I wrote that the U.S. economy, especially on the jobs side, remains basically healthy and even strong. At the same time, risks around the world seem to be receding. Chinese growth looks like it’s picking up, Europe also seems to be responding to central bank stimulus, and most of the things we were worried about over the past six months haven’t turned out so bad.

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The Employment Boom Is Pretty Much Here

April 21, 2016

For well over a year, I’ve been saying that job growth is not quite in a boom, but you can see one from here. After all that time, I think that we’ve largely arrived.

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New York Primary Results Should Help Reassure Markets

April 20, 2016

In my post last week about the election and financial markets, I wrote that it was too early to worry about what the candidates are likely to do if elected. That remains true, but the New York primary results suggest it’s not too soon to think about what the rest of the race might look like—and what that might mean for the economy and the markets.

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How Much More Expensive Can the Market Get?

April 19, 2016

After 15-percent pullbacks in both the first quarter and the middle of last year, the market is moving up toward new highs. The Dow just ticked above 18,000 for the first time since last July, and the S&P 500 is getting close to the 2,100 level, last seen in December. All-time highs are 18,351.36 for the Dow and 2,134.72 for the S&P 500, so we are getting close.

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Monday Update: Weaker Than Expected

April 18, 2016

Last week’s economic data was unexpectedly weak, with disappointing news on both retail sales and industrial production. Although forward-looking indicators are improving, the past week’s numbers suggest that the economy hasn’t yet moved beyond the slowdown.

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How High Are Taxes, Really?

April 15, 2016

At a conference last month, I had a discussion with a group of people who were deeply convinced that their taxes were as high as they’d ever been. I mentioned that solving the budget problems of the U.S. would require higher taxes—which wasn’t intended as a recommendation but simply a recognition of the math. The group maintained that it was impossible to raise taxes any further without crippling the economy.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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