The Independent Market Observer

Solid Jobs Report Confirms Strength of Labor Market

January 6, 2017

The big economic news of the week came in this morning: the jobs report.

Despite a jump in business and consumer confidence since the election, some of the facts on the ground have been weaker. To spur on faster economic growth, that confidence needs to result in action. Fortunately, this morning’s jobs report suggests that it is.

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Symptoms, Diseases, and the Fed

January 5, 2017

This week, someone asked me about the excess reserves held by the banking system and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do about it. As it turned out, what he really wanted to know was whether inflation is likely to take off and which signals might alert us if the economy and markets are about to roll over.

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What Could Go Wrong in 2017?

January 4, 2017

Now that the election is over and the Republican Congress has taken office, now that the stock market is close to all-time highs and confidence has ramped up to levels not seen since the dot-com boom, it’s time to think about what could go wrong.

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Consumers and Business Head Confidently into New Year

January 3, 2017

Looking ahead into 2017, one big theme that will carry over from last year is the positive change in confidence. Consumer confidence has increased dramatically, especially since the election, and just spiked to a point last seen in 2001. Business confidence continues to rise and is now at a level not seen since 2007.

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Market Thoughts for January 2017 [Video]

January 3, 2017

Last month was all about confidence: for the consumer, for business, and in the stock market.

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As 2017 Dawns, Much to Be Grateful For

December 29, 2016

As I’ve said many times before, I believe that gratitude is a foundation for both happiness and a mindful life. Every day, I write down at least three things I’m grateful for, a practice that is proven to increase well-being. Beyond that, I also try to make time every couple of months to really think through my life and all I have to be thankful for.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 28, 2016 [Video]

December 28, 2016

After the Trump bump and the Santa Claus rally, stocks slumped today, stalling the drive for Dow 20K. With all 11 S&P sectors lower, is that milestone slipping out of reach?

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3 Questions Investors Should Ask in 2017

December 28, 2016

portfolio questionsI wrote this post a couple of years ago, but the ideas here still hold true. In some respects, they're even more apt now than they were then. As we approach the New Year, it's a good time to examine our portfolios (and our lives) and ask ourselves what we could be doing better. — Brad

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Monday Update: Confidence Improves as Consumer Fundamentals Pause

December 27, 2016

Last week’s data was generally positive, with the housing market doing well and business investment improving. Consumer income and spending growth paused, however, suggesting that we need to keep an eye on the situation of the average American consumer.

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No Cash, No Carry: The Demonetization of the Indian Economy

December 21, 2016

On November 8, a major event shook the world of hundreds of millions of people. And no, I’m not talking about the U.S. election. The event I’m referring to is the decision by the Indian government to invalidate most of its own currency.

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