The Independent Market Observer

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 28, 2016 [Video]

December 28, 2016

After the Trump bump and the Santa Claus rally, stocks slumped today, stalling the drive for Dow 20K. With all 11 S&P sectors lower, is that milestone slipping out of reach?

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3 Questions Investors Should Ask in 2017

December 28, 2016

portfolio questionsI wrote this post a couple of years ago, but the ideas here still hold true. In some respects, they're even more apt now than they were then. As we approach the New Year, it's a good time to examine our portfolios (and our lives) and ask ourselves what we could be doing better. — Brad

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Monday Update: Confidence Improves as Consumer Fundamentals Pause

December 27, 2016

Last week’s data was generally positive, with the housing market doing well and business investment improving. Consumer income and spending growth paused, however, suggesting that we need to keep an eye on the situation of the average American consumer.

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No Cash, No Carry: The Demonetization of the Indian Economy

December 21, 2016

On November 8, a major event shook the world of hundreds of millions of people. And no, I’m not talking about the U.S. election. The event I’m referring to is the decision by the Indian government to invalidate most of its own currency.

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Here Comes Santa Claus

December 20, 2016

It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

I suspect many of you are as tired of hearing that as I am. I love the holiday season, but the endless repetition of carols can get to you after a while. (In my case, I attribute it to high school jobs working in a department store. By the time I left for the day, I wanted to go after Frosty with an icicle.)

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Monday Update: Data Less Encouraging

December 19, 2016

Last week’s economic data wasn’t really terrible, but it was disappointing after the surprisingly strong numbers we’ve seen in recent weeks. Both consumer and business showed lower-than-expected gains and largely failed to meet expectations. Although the economy continues to improve and trends remain positive, the stream of positive data took a breather last week.

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The Boston Tea Party and Democracy Today

December 16, 2016

It was 243 years ago today that a group of Massachusetts Bay colonists threw the Boston Tea Party, protesting a law they did not like by dumping tea from British ships into the harbor. This, of course, led to further British laws and colonial unrest—and eventually to where we sit today, in the United States of America instead of Greater Britain.

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Fed’s More Hawkish Outlook Surprises Markets

December 15, 2016

The outcome of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting was as everyone had expected: the Fed raised short-term rates by 25 basis points. The surprising part was the more hawkish tone of the surrounding commentary.

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The Stock Market Giveth and the Bond Market Taketh Away

December 14, 2016

Over the past couple of years, I’ve written several posts that explained why U.S. market indices are not the best ways to measure your portfolio. Although it’s natural to look at the Dow, for example, and see how it matches up with your own portfolio, it really isn’t a good comparison.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2016

December 13, 2016

Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future. Although valuations are now high—a noted risk factor in past bear markets—markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years, which doesn’t give us much to go on timing-wise.

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