The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Business and Consumer Confidence Still Rising

December 12, 2016

Once again, last week’s economic reports were surprisingly strong, with most consumer and business data beating expectations, often significantly.

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Dow 20,000 in Sight

December 9, 2016

I remember when the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 10,000, both going up and going down. It was a lot more fun going up, especially the first time. The index is now approaching double that level—Dow 20,000. If we get there, it should be exciting.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 8, 2016 [Video]

December 9, 2016

The markets have continued to rally since the election, reaching all-time high after all-time high. Should we be nervous about a short-term pullpack? 

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Floating-Rate Strategies: You Might Not Get What You Want

December 8, 2016

My colleague and friend Peter Essele, portfolio manager here at Commonwealth, has again put together an interesting piece highlighting the gap that often exists between what investors expect and what the market gives them. Although it’s a bit technical, the point is very important given recent moves in interest rates and the ongoing search for yield by many investors.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2016

December 7, 2016

In the wake of the election, many of the economic indicators we track here each month saw substantial improvement. There was some weakness going into the election, but the news since then has been stronger. Although job growth continues to tick down, consumer confidence has rebounded in a big way, and business confidence has also continued to move higher.

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Should I Invest Outside the U.S.?

December 6, 2016

With U.S. stocks surging to new highs and trouble brewing elsewhere in the world (the failed Italian referendum and resignation of Matteo Renzi, not to mention the continued decline in the Chinese currency), I’ve been getting questions about whether investors should just stay here in the USA.

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Monday Update: More Strong Data for Consumers and Business

December 5, 2016

Last week’s economic reports were surprisingly strong, with both consumer and business data beating expectations, often by significant amounts. These results support the idea that the economy continues to improve—and that the improvement appears to be accelerating.

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Should You Be Worried About the Strong Dollar?

December 2, 2016

A speech I give regularly starts out with a series of worries investors have had in recent years. Four years ago, for example, we had three major concerns: the dollar was incredibly weak, oil prices were way too high, and China was a rising power. More recently (say, a year ago), we also had three major worries: the dollar was far too strong, oil prices were too low, and China was collapsing.

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Market Thoughts for December 2016 [Video]

December 2, 2016

Looking back on last month, the first word that comes to mind is wow . . .

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Problems . . .

December 1, 2016

I’ve been pretty optimistic about the U.S. economy and stock markets over the past couple of weeks, and I stand by that. Almost all of the news is surprisingly good and likely to improve even further.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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