Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future.
January 13, 2017
Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future.
January 12, 2017
The news this month continues to be good, with more positive data almost across the board. This is the second month of reversal against the downtrend that developed in 2016, which suggests a real change of course. Although we need more data to be fully confident, the consistency of the positive reversal across multiple data sets and the magnitude of the positive surprises are very encouraging.
January 11, 2017
Rereading some of my recent posts, it occurred to me that I’ve talked quite a bit about “confidence” (and the improvements thereof) without actually defining what I mean by it. Much of social science, and economics, is based on hand-waving, so when you have actual data, it makes sense to employ it.
January 10, 2017
Recently, several readers have written in questioning the current optimism about the economy. Is it sustainable, and is it realistic to expect faster growth?
January 9, 2017
2016 ended with a bang, as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey once again surprised to the upside. Coming in at 113.7 for December—up from 107.1 and beating expectations of 109—this is the highest level since 2001, suggesting that consumers are increasingly optimistic, despite weak personal income and expense growth.
January 6, 2017
The big economic news of the week came in this morning: the jobs report.
Despite a jump in business and consumer confidence since the election, some of the facts on the ground have been weaker. To spur on faster economic growth, that confidence needs to result in action. Fortunately, this morning’s jobs report suggests that it is.
January 5, 2017
This week, someone asked me about the excess reserves held by the banking system and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do about it. As it turned out, what he really wanted to know was whether inflation is likely to take off and which signals might alert us if the economy and markets are about to roll over.
January 4, 2017
Now that the election is over and the Republican Congress has taken office, now that the stock market is close to all-time highs and confidence has ramped up to levels not seen since the dot-com boom, it’s time to think about what could go wrong.
January 3, 2017
Looking ahead into 2017, one big theme that will carry over from last year is the positive change in confidence. Consumer confidence has increased dramatically, especially since the election, and just spiked to a point last seen in 2001. Business confidence continues to rise and is now at a level not seen since 2007.
January 3, 2017
Last month was all about confidence: for the consumer, for business, and in the stock market.
