If the U.S. economy isn’t bleeding—at least not a lot, yet—then what is? I closed yesterday’s post with the idea that Europe is the area we should be watching, and the place to start is in France.

One of the many blessings of having a son is that my life is rarely calm. Drama is a regular guest at the McMillan household whenever anything, however minor, happens. I do not always greet Drama with what he would consider an appropriate response, though. In fact, he usually gets a look and then a question: “Is it bleeding?” If, rarely, the answer is yes, I then ask, “Is it bleeding a lot?” If not, we discuss how the adage “When in danger or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout” is always the wrong response.

Today is tax day here in Massachusetts, as we got an extra day due to Patriots’ Day, a state holiday. The holiday brings with it a number of special events, including the Boston Marathon, as well as reenactments of the Battles of Lexington and Concord. My wife, son, and I actually saw the local militia marching to battle yesterday morning, along the same route they did more than 200 years ago.

Politics and revolution, therefore, are in the air, and the events both here and abroad keep capturing my attention.

Last week’s data brought more of what we’ve been seeing lately: strong sentiment but weaker results. Despite some disappointments, the general levels of activity remain expansionary, though the headline declines do bear watching. That said, I don’t think last week’s news should significantly change expectations going forward.

Yesterday, President Trump did an interview in which he apparently reversed several key tenets of his election campaign. To wit, he noted that China was not actually manipulating its currency, at least recently; that he kind of liked Fed Chair Janet Yellen and more or less approved of the Fed’s low-rate policy; that trade was, in fact, good and so were government agencies like the Export-Import Bank that supported it; and that he would be happy to see the value of the dollar weaker rather than stronger.

Any one of these statements would have generated headlines, but to hear all of them in one interview really set bells ringing.

First, there was hype and then improving sentiment in the real economy, along with a nice initial rush in the stock market. More recently, we’ve seen doubts and weak numbers creep in for the economy and worries and a small pullback for the stock market. And, now, we’re getting to the moment of truth: We are actually going to see whether companies are making as much money as the market thinks.

Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future. Although valuations are now high—a noted risk factor in past bear markets—markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years, which doesn’t give us much to go on timing-wise.

Last Thursday, I had the privilege of appearing on CNBC’s Nightly Business Report (my segment runs from 7:25 to 10:27) to discuss risks to the markets and economy.

Last week was an eventful one in terms of economic data, with extensive news on both business and jobs. Although headline declines raised some concern, the details of the reports were better, and general levels of activity remain expansionary. Overall, it was a pretty positive week and shouldn't alter expectations going forward.

In March, many of the economic indicators we track experienced slight pullbacks. Given recent positive trends—and the fact that most of the metrics remain in healthy territory—I’m not that concerned. Although the weakness is certainly worth monitoring in case it becomes the start of a larger trend, all of our indicators remain in the green-light zone.