The Independent Market Observer

Today's GDP Report (and What to Expect in Q2)

March 30, 2017

As we close out the first quarter of 2017, all I can say is that it’s been a great one, economically and financially. Despite all of the worry and turmoil—in Washington, DC, and elsewhere in the world—markets have risen substantially and the economy has continued to grow.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Brexit Begins: Should U.S. Investors Care?

March 29, 2017

The big news of the day is that the United Kingdom has finally pulled the trigger on its exit from the European Union. The letter initiating Brexit was delivered this morning, and the parties now begin the two-year process of negotiating the exit terms and subsequent relationship.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Congress, the Debt Ceiling, and the Stock Market

March 28, 2017

The health care bill was pulled from the House last week before a vote was taken, a sure sign that the support wasn't there. Speaker Paul Ryan has admitted that Obamacare will remain the law of the land for some time. President Trump has, as expected, already started to move on. The papers are trumpeting what a big blow this is to the administration and the Republican Party. 

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Housing Market Keeps Tightening, Business Orders Still Growing

March 27, 2017

Last week’s data was generally positive. Housing continues to strengthen; although strong demand has reduced inventories of existing homes, new home sales have started to pick up the slack. On the business front, capital spending continues to improve, although not as quickly as had been hoped.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The Health Care Vote and the Stock Market

March 24, 2017

Today, the Republicans are set to make a high-stakes gamble on one of their signature issues, repealing the Affordable Care Act. They don’t know whether the bill will pass, but at President Trump’s behest, they are bringing it to the floor. Trump framed it this way: If the bill fails, then Obamacare survives. Given the energy the Republican Party has invested in repeal, this is certainly a moment of high political drama.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Investors Feeling More Greedy Than Fearful

March 23, 2017

Today, I’m at the Barron’s Top Independent Advisors Summit, where I will be moderating a discussion titled “Fear and Greed” with two impressive panelists, Brian Wesbury and David Iben. I am very interested to hear what they have to say, and as moderator, I’ll be doing much more listening than speaking (no doubt to the benefit of the audience).

Continue reading → Leave a comment

What About Yesterday’s Stock Market Pullback?

March 22, 2017

Yesterday, we finally saw a market decline of more than 1 percent, after a very long time without one. Is this the end of the rally?

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Is Spring on the Way for the Economy?

March 21, 2017

As the end of the first quarter approaches, expectations are high for a new burst of economic growth. With consumer confidence at the highest point since before the financial crisis, business confidence rising to very healthy levels, and job and wage growth continuing to move in the right direction, spring seems just around the corner.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Mixed Data, But Continued Growth Likely

March 20, 2017

Last week’s economic data was all over the place, but despite some significant disappointments, the overall tone was positive. With the Federal Reserve raising rates but declining to speed up the process, the most likely path looks to be continued growth at about the same pace we’ve seen recently.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Three Steps and a Stumble

March 17, 2017

St. Patrick’s Day, at least here in the U.S., is all about the wearing of the green. Everyone is Irish today, the green beer flows, and we have a great time—until waking up the next day with a hangover. Living in Boston, with the surname McMillan, I certainly get it.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 13
November 19, 2025

Episode 12
October 14, 2025

Episode 11
September 10, 2025

Episode 10
August 13, 2025

Episode 9
July 23, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®