Brad here. After looking at emerging market stock markets yesterday, it is a good time to discuss the debt markets there. Although stock markets usually get most of the attention, Nick Follett, manager of our fixed income team at Commonwealth, makes a compelling case that debt markets deserve a look as well. I think you’ll find that this post gets a bit further into the details than we normally do, but the relative unfamiliarity of the topic makes it both necessary and worthwhile. Enjoy!

Brad here. One of the questions I’ve been getting recently has been whether international markets still make sense, with particular concerns around whether they are too risky. Anu Gaggar, our international analyst, makes a strong case that emerging markets still make sense—in many more ways now than in years past. I think she raises some excellent points and makes a strong case. Enjoy!

Brad here. Today's post is from Sam Millette, a fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team. Over to you, Sam.

I have been keeping an eye on bitcoin prices, which are around $3,600 (as of February 14), close to the lowest level in a year. Bitcoin has clearly not run to the sky the way many buyers thought it would. But there are signs that the underlying technology—the blockchain—is starting to make progress in the real world. Bitcoin was not the real story; the technology was. Now, we are starting to see the results.

This will be a short post, as it has been a long 48 hours. I was on a red-eye flight last night, returning from the Commonwealth Retirement Symposium in Scottsdale. Before that, I was at the Commonwealth Chairman’s Retreat in Palm Beach. So, my brain is not working at peak efficiency!

We talked yesterday about the possibility of another government shutdown and the effect that could have on both business and consumer confidence. That shutdown looks to be something we will avoid. But now there is another potential confidence buster ahead being talked up in the media: an earnings recession.

We are getting close to the decision point on whether large parts of the government will shut down again. Much of our discussion on the first shutdown still applies—the direct economic damage will be real but limited. As we look seriously at a repeat, though, we need to spend some time thinking about the indirect damage. If shutdowns become a regular feature of government, then the effect will be linear but could also rise substantially.

Although the government shutdown has now ended, several economic reports from previous weeks have not yet been released. It is still undetermined when they will be made available, although the releases have started. As such, the week ahead will be busy, with the regularly scheduled reports joined by some catch-up data.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for February? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

As far as we know, the economic news remained solid if somewhat mixed last month. The caveat here is that the government shutdown delayed some reports. The core data we look at, however, is available.