The Independent Market Observer

Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, July 25, 2019 [Video]

July 25, 2019

The European Central Bank has signaled for a possible change in monetary policy. What could this mean for the markets and investors? I discussed the risks and more today on CNBC’s Power Lunch.

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Will Boris Johnson Get Brexit Right?

July 25, 2019

Today, I’d like to continue the discussion of yesterday’s post on the need to understand what is happening elsewhere in the world. So, let’s take a contrarian look at Brexit and the recent elevation of Boris Johnson to the head of the British government.

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The West and the Middle World: A Review of Destiny Disrupted, by Tamim Ansary

July 24, 2019

For quite a while, the U.S. was focused on other parts of the world. Wars in the Middle East, the Greek crisis, and North Korea all made headlines and were front of mind for many investors. Recently, though, that view has largely faded. We are still at war in Afghanistan, but no one seems to be talking about. A hard Brexit is looming, same thing. Attention has returned to what is happening here in the U.S.

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Deal on Spending and Debt Ceiling Is Good News for Economy

July 23, 2019

This morning’s announcement of the deal between Congress and the White House to suspend the debt ceiling for the next two years is undiluted good news. With an agreement that the government can borrow to spend the money that it has already committed to spending, we can avoid a totally unnecessary, politically driven crisis that could have caused real economic damage. Assuming the deal actually gets passed and signed, it would remove the only near-term roadblock to continued expansion here in the U.S. Like I said, this is definitely good news.

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Monday Update: Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence Highlight Busy Week

July 22, 2019

Last week was packed with economic updates that covered a wide portion of the economy. For the most part, the news came in better than expected, with increases in consumer confidence and spending highlighting the data. This will be a quieter week, with a focus on housing and the first report of second-quarter GDP growth.

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What Earnings Recession?

July 19, 2019

The term recession is having a moment. There is talk of a manufacturing recession, an earnings recession, and, the big one, an economic recession here in the U.S. Worry has been rising with the headlines of slower growth, especially with the recent inversion of the yield curve. Recession is a bad, bad word.

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Are We Seeing Signs of Peak Growth?

July 18, 2019

In retrospect, a good candidate for demonstrating the peak of the boom may be yesterday’s announcement by Netflix that subscriber growth came in well below expectations during the second quarter: the number of subscribers was up by 2.7 million against expectations of 5.3 million. Worse, in its most developed market (i.e., the U.S.), subscriber numbers were actually down by 126,000, against an expected gain of 310,000. This marks the first time the company has ever seen a decline in U.S. subscribers.

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Debt Ceiling Crisis Heating Up

July 17, 2019

An issue I have been mentioning for the past couple of months is finally starting to get some attention: the U.S. is facing a potential crisis as the government runs out of money. Sometime this fall, likely in September, the government won't have the funds to pay its bills.

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Earnings Season: Here We Go Again

July 16, 2019

This morning, I spent some time speaking with a client who wanted to know why markets had slowed down recently. But I am not sure I agree with her. We hit all-time highs just the other day, although in recent days, the market has been taking a bit of a breather. Will that down time continue, or could we get another leg up?

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Appearance on Fox Business Network’s Countdown to the Closing Bell with Liz Claman, July 12, 2019 [Video]

July 15, 2019

Are fears keeping interest rates low? I discussed this and more Friday on Fox Business Network's Countdown to the Closing Bell with Liz Claman.

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