The Independent Market Observer

A Look Back at the Markets in August and Ahead to September 2019

September 5, 2019

August was a tough month pretty much across the board, with politics rocking markets around the world. So, what should we expect for September? Let’s take a closer look.

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Market Thoughts for September 2019 [Video]

September 4, 2019

August was a tough month for markets, with fixed income the only bright spot. There was a lot of volatility, with markets down between 4 percent and 6 percent on three occasions. What drove the declines? Politics. The U.S.-China trade war heated up, and the Fed and the White House sparred over rates. Still, the economy remained solid—with consumer confidence high and strong job growth.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumer Spending Better Than Expected

September 3, 2019

Last week’s economic data releases focused on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and consumer income and spending. The news was a bit mixed, as we saw stronger-than-expected consumer spending growth despite a drop in consumer confidence. This week, although short, will be busy again, with updates on business confidence, trade, and the August job report.

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Hong Kong Protests: Why They Matter for Investors

August 30, 2019

Brad here. Today's post on what the Hong Kong protests could mean for global investors is by Anu Gaggar, international analyst at Commonwealth. Take it away, Anu!

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Is Consumer Confidence More Fragile Than It Looks?

August 29, 2019

Yesterday, we discussed business confidence and concluded that it is better than the headlines suggest. Today, we are going to look at the even more important level of consumer confidence—and whether it may be considerably weaker than it appears.

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On the Brink? How to Monitor Business Confidence for Recession Risk

August 28, 2019

Yesterday, I talked about what I am keeping an eye on, business and consumer confidence, and why I think they are important. Today and tomorrow, I want to talk about how I plan to do that.

Business confidence is leading the headlines right now. With the trade war and the general economic slowdown around the world, U.S. business is reported to be suffering. That seems to be true, but is that suffering bad enough to affect the economy as a whole?

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Why I’m Watching Business, Consumer Confidence

August 27, 2019

All right, going on vacation was a mistake. The market started dropping just before we left and has recovered upon our return. Sorry about that. Now that I am back, though, we can be confident that the market will keep rising. Right? Right?

Maybe not, but the real issue here is not whether the market will keep rising—that is a consequence, not a cause—but whether confidence, which has kept the economy expanding and the market rising, will persist.

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Monday Update: Mixed Housing Sales and Fed Minutes Punctuate Slow Week

August 26, 2019

Last week was relatively quiet, with the only economic updates being housing sales data and the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. This week will be much busier, with updates covering durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and consumer income and spending.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's YFi AM, August 23, 2019 [Video]

August 23, 2019

Do I think the Fed has been clear it's not going to react to headlines? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s YFi AM.

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What Do Q2 Earnings Results Mean for Stocks?

August 23, 2019

Brad here. Today's post features a dive into second-quarter earnings season. It was written by Jim McAllister, director, equity research, on our Investment Management and Research team. Take it away, Jim.

Earnings season tends to generate a lot of headlines at both the individual stock level and the broad index level. During this most recent earnings season, those headlines have been telling conflicting stories. On the positive side, we have heard that the vast majority of companies in the S&P 500 are beating earnings expectations. But other sources are more bearish, claiming the S&P 500 has officially entered an earnings recession. What’s really going on?

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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