The Independent Market Observer

Appearance on CNBC’s The Exchange, August 22, 2019 [Video]

August 22, 2019

This afternoon I appeared on CNBC’s The Exchange to discuss the Fed and rate cuts. Listen in to learn more.

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The Target-Date Fund: A One-Stop Shopping 401(k) Investment

August 22, 2019

Brad here. Today's post was written by Michael Geraci, a supervisor on our Retirement Consulting Investment Services team. Take it away, Michael. 

Evaluating your 401(k) plan can be a brutal and daunting process. It may leave you with many questions about the investments available to you and how to best manage your account. It may even deter some from participating in the plan altogether. Fortunately, there are ways to help simplify the process. The first step? Understanding one of the most commonly used investment options within 401(k) plans: the target-date fund, or TDF.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance Live: The Final Round, August 21, 2019 [Video]

August 21, 2019

Earlier today, I appeared on Yahoo Finance Live: The Final Round to discuss the economy, including consumer spending. Listen in to learn more.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2019

August 21, 2019

Starting this week, my colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, will be helping me with the Monthly Market Risk Update posts. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of the risk. Although stocks remain close to all-time highs, the recent volatility is a reminder that, given valuations and recent market behavior, it is useful to keep an eye on these factors.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2019

August 20, 2019

Starting this week, my colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, will be helping me with the Economic Risk Factor Update posts. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

The economic data released last month was mixed, with improvements in consumer confidence offset by declining business sentiment. Job creation continued to be solid, but there are signs of a slowdown. The yield curve remains inverted despite the rate cut made at the Fed’s July meeting. Although we are not yet at immediate risk levels, there are certain areas of the economy that should be watched closely going forward.

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Monday Update: Retail Sales Pop in July

August 19, 2019

Despite last week’s market volatility, the economic data releases showed a growing economy, with better-than-expected retail sales growth highlighting the continued strength of the American consumer. This will be a quieter week, with only a few major updates set to be released.

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My Portfolio Isn’t Beating the Market: Should It?

August 16, 2019

Brad here. Today's post features an interesting discussion on how to measure portfolio performance. It was written by Brian Glazer, a senior investment consultant on our Investment Consulting Services team. Take it away, Brian.

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More Market Turbulence: No Surprise Here

August 15, 2019

Yesterday, we saw the largest stock market drop of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 800 points (over 3 percent), an even bigger decline than we saw earlier this month. Plus, we are on track for the worst week of the year. It is a tough time for markets, and investors are worried. But should they be?

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Playing the Long Game: Investor Expectations Vs. Results

August 14, 2019

Brad here. Today's post on playing the long game of investing (and golf) comes to you from Mick Comiskey, an investment risk analyst on our Investment Management and Research team. Take it away, Mick. 

In many aspects of life, if your expectations exceed the range of possibilities, you will be disappointed. This axiom is devastatingly true when it comes to investing—and infuriatingly true in the game of golf. The extended bull market in the U.S. has led to a widening gap between investor and advisor market expectations. A similar gap exists between the weekend golfer playing friends for lunch and the PGA Tour pro playing for a casual million dollars.

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Don’t Miss the Green: Inflation and Your Portfolio

August 13, 2019

Brad here. Today's look at inflation and your portfolio is brought to you by Rob Swanke, a fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team. Take it away, Rob.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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