All right, going on vacation was a mistake. The market started dropping just before we left and has recovered upon our return. Sorry about that. Now that I am back, though, we can be confident that the market will keep rising. Right? Right?

Maybe not, but the real issue here is not whether the market will keep rising—that is a consequence, not a cause—but whether confidence, which has kept the economy expanding and the market rising, will persist.

Last week was relatively quiet, with the only economic updates being housing sales data and the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. This week will be much busier, with updates covering durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and consumer income and spending.

Do I think the Fed has been clear it's not going to react to headlines? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s YFi AM.

Brad here. Today's post features a dive into second-quarter earnings season. It was written by Jim McAllister, director, equity research, on our Investment Management and Research team. Take it away, Jim.

Earnings season tends to generate a lot of headlines at both the individual stock level and the broad index level. During this most recent earnings season, those headlines have been telling conflicting stories. On the positive side, we have heard that the vast majority of companies in the S&P 500 are beating earnings expectations. But other sources are more bearish, claiming the S&P 500 has officially entered an earnings recession. What’s really going on?

This afternoon I appeared on CNBC’s The Exchange to discuss the Fed and rate cuts. Listen in to learn more.

Brad here. Today's post was written by Michael Geraci, a supervisor on our Retirement Consulting Investment Services team. Take it away, Michael. 

Evaluating your 401(k) plan can be a brutal and daunting process. It may leave you with many questions about the investments available to you and how to best manage your account. It may even deter some from participating in the plan altogether. Fortunately, there are ways to help simplify the process. The first step? Understanding one of the most commonly used investment options within 401(k) plans: the target-date fund, or TDF.

Earlier today, I appeared on Yahoo Finance Live: The Final Round to discuss the economy, including consumer spending. Listen in to learn more.

Starting this week, my colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, will be helping me with the Monthly Market Risk Update posts. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of the risk. Although stocks remain close to all-time highs, the recent volatility is a reminder that, given valuations and recent market behavior, it is useful to keep an eye on these factors.

Starting this week, my colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, will be helping me with the Economic Risk Factor Update posts. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

The economic data released last month was mixed, with improvements in consumer confidence offset by declining business sentiment. Job creation continued to be solid, but there are signs of a slowdown. The yield curve remains inverted despite the rate cut made at the Fed’s July meeting. Although we are not yet at immediate risk levels, there are certain areas of the economy that should be watched closely going forward.

Despite last week’s market volatility, the economic data releases showed a growing economy, with better-than-expected retail sales growth highlighting the continued strength of the American consumer. This will be a quieter week, with only a few major updates set to be released.