Last week’s economic updates largely disappointed, with housing sales, durable goods orders, and consumer confidence all declining. Upon closer inspection, however, we found some positive developments, with continued year-over-year housing growth as a highlight. This week will be very busy, with the Fed’s October rate-setting meeting, the first report on third-quarter GDP growth, and the October jobs report all on the docket.

One of the topics I get a lot of questions about when speaking to clients is the trade war. They want to know what I think and whether whatever they’ve read in the latest headline will make a big difference. It has been a remarkably consistent question, through all the ups and downs, and the only difference is what exactly the latest headline is. My answer has also been consistent. I think the trade war is a big deal, but the latest headline doesn’t really matter. Why? Because the damage has already been done. It will just take a while to show up.

Normally, I don’t make predictions about where any individual economic stat will come out. There is enough noise in the system, and enough variance in the data collection process, that any individual report's results can vary enormously—and it still won’t mean anything.

I have written versions of this post before, but it is demanding to be written again. So, here we go.

WeWork has been one of the trending business topics in recent weeks. The collapse of its initial public offering, followed by the ouster of its CEO and founder, and now the drama over whether (and if) the company will be rescued have provided some compelling drama. It has played out more like a TV show than an actual company. Watch for the movie shortly, I expect.

Do I think the stock buyback boom is over? I discussed this and more today on CNBC’s Power Lunch.

Last week, important updates on retail sales, home builders, and industrial production yielded mixed results. This week, we’re expecting some more ups and downs, with updates to come on home sales, durable goods, and consumer confidence.  

In yesterday’s post, we concluded that interest rates were influenced—but not set—by the Fed. We also observed that rates were influenced—but not set—by the supply and demand of capital. We noted in both cases, however, that there was considerable variance over what those two models indicated, which suggests there is something else going on.

We closed yesterday’s post with the observation that economic theory doesn’t really have a good grip on where interest rates come from. Today, I want to explore where we think rates come from and what that might mean.

Yesterday, we started out this series with the observation that interest rates are likely transitioning to a new normal, which is different from the old normal. In other words, all of the projections that assume rates will be getting back to normal are wrong—because the definition of normal has changed.