The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Fed to Economy: We’ve Got Your Back

March 21, 2019

Yesterday’s Fed statement and press conference revealed a significant reversal from previous meetings. When Chair Powell told markets to “drop dead” a few months ago, the consensus was that the Fed was committed to normalizing policy despite the market risks. Since then, and especially with the most recent statement and conference, the Fed has done a full 180. Now, it is acting to support markets and the economy.

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A Focus on Gratitude

March 20, 2019

This will be a short post as I am on a plane headed back home from Florida. For me, this brief time in the air is a great opportunity to do something I try to do a couple of times a year here on the blog: focus on gratitude. Gratitude is one of the easiest and most effective ways to improve your life. Doing a daily gratitude practice, where I write down three things I am grateful for every day, has changed my life immeasurably for the better. Gratitude is not usually associated with air travel, I admit, but let’s see what we can do here.

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What’s Behind the Latest Market Bounce?

March 19, 2019

With the market recovery continuing and after the decline at the end of last year, the market is once again moving close to new highs. The multibillion dollar question here is why that is—which hopefully will give us some guidance as to whether it will continue.

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Monday Update: Inflation Under Control, But Data Still Weak

March 18, 2019

Last week was a busy one for economic data. But the week ahead will be slower, consisting of housing reports and the regular meeting of the Fed.

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Are the Economy and Markets More Fragile Than They Seem?

March 15, 2019

To follow up on my most recent Economic Risk Factor Update and Monthly Market Risk Update, as well as on my colleague Anu’s post on whether the Fed might resort to negative rates, I want to think about where the economy is headed. As I pointed out in the risk updates, the headline news is positive. All the economic indicators that I follow are outside the risk zones, market risk indicators have improved over the past month, and, in general, things are good. At least markets certainly think so. But as I look beyond the headline data, there is a strong case to be made that the current good conditions are much more fragile than they seem.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2019

March 13, 2019

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for March? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2019

March 12, 2019

After signs of weakness in January, the question was whether we would see a rebound in February. In some areas—consumer and business confidence—we did, largely driven by the end of the government shutdown. This confidence rebound has reduced risk going forward, although we need to pay attention to whether it holds.

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Monday Update: Weak Trade and Jobs Data, But Business Confidence Improves

March 11, 2019

Last week was a busy one in terms of economic updates, including the very important jobs report. This week, we’ll get a look at retail sales and manufacturing.

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Disappointing Jobs Report Not the End of the World

March 8, 2019

There’s no getting around it: the jobs report, with only 20,000 jobs added last month across the entire U.S., stinks. This is a terrible report, and it should strike fear and loathing into the hearts of every economist and citizen in the country. This opinion is the bulk of what I suspect you will be hearing, and it is largely correct.

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19 Years Ago, Dot-Com Hit Its Peak

March 7, 2019

Yesterday, I wrote about how we’re approaching the 10th anniversary of the market bottom, when the S&P 500 touched 666 and then started to rebound. Today, I want to talk about a different market milestone: March 10, 2000 (19 years ago this weekend). That’s when the Nasdaq Composite, the tech index that exemplified the dot-com boom, peaked and started to decline.

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