The October bounce continued in November, with the S&P 500 up 5.59 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 6.04 percent, while the Nasdaq trailed with a respectable gain of 4.51 percent. Internationally, the news was even better, with developed markets up 11.26 percent and emerging markets leading the pack with a 14.85 percent gain. It was a good month across the board and surprisingly so for international markets after an extended period of underperformance.

It’s time for the monthly jobs report preview, which is worth doing for a few reasons. First, it lets us consider the most important driver of the economy both for history and for the immediate data. Second, it makes us think about our expectations. And third, of course, it will be in the headlines.

To be honest, I probably would not have used that headline a couple of weeks ago. Although I spent about a month putting together my talk for Commonwealth’s National Conference, which pretty much comes to that conclusion, I was not yet at a point where I would put that as the headline. Even as I rehearsed the night before, I was thinking about how I would handle the talk if the next morning’s data release—just hours before the talk itself—put inflation back up again. I couldn’t rewrite my presentation, as there wasn’t enough time (and besides, the art department was already upset with me).

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

This will be another short post as I am giving a talk this morning on . . . wait for it . . . inflation! The whole thesis of the talk is that inflation is going to roll over shortly, for a bunch of reasons that I will describe in future posts. Or so I hope, anyway.

This will be a short post, partially because I am in San Diego at Commonwealth’s National Conference, but mostly because there isn’t much to say about the midterms that I did not already cover the other day.

October showed a sharp rebound after a significant September drop. The S&P 500 gained 8.1 percent during the month, while the Nasdaq rose 3.94 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced the best month of the three major indices, soaring 14.07 percent. Internationally, the news was mixed, with developed markets up 5.38 percent while emerging markets were down 3.09 percent. It was a surprisingly good result, especially after a terrible September.

As I have been saying for some time, the best indicator for the economy as a whole is the jobs market. With consumer spending representing more than two-thirds of the economy, as long as people are working, they can spend. And the jobs numbers tell us whether they are working.