It has been a tough couple of days in the markets, and it looks like today will be another. Not only is the market down in pre-market trading, but this is also a quadruple witching day (i.e., when four types of derivatives all expire on the same day). That often leads to volatility and, in the context of the past couple of days, means today could be difficult as well. I see the effects in my portfolio, and you may have seen them in yours as well. Should we be worried? In a word, no.

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

With the regular meeting of the Fed underway, we now all wait with bated breath to find out what the decision will be. Well, in this case, there is not much doubt: it will be an increase of 50 bps. But we can still wonder about the wrapping on the present. To shift metaphors and get a bit ahead of ourselves, will Chair Powell come out and see his shadow, signaling six more rate increases? Or will there be sunny skies ahead?

Today, we are going to be bouncing back and forth between several different economic and market data sets I reviewed this morning and using this information to form both specific and general conclusions. Each of these data sets could reasonably be interpreted as either good news or bad, so it's important to see whether we can tell the difference.

The October bounce continued in November, with the S&P 500 up 5.59 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 6.04 percent, while the Nasdaq trailed with a respectable gain of 4.51 percent. Internationally, the news was even better, with developed markets up 11.26 percent and emerging markets leading the pack with a 14.85 percent gain. It was a good month across the board and surprisingly so for international markets after an extended period of underperformance.

It’s time for the monthly jobs report preview, which is worth doing for a few reasons. First, it lets us consider the most important driver of the economy both for history and for the immediate data. Second, it makes us think about our expectations. And third, of course, it will be in the headlines.

To be honest, I probably would not have used that headline a couple of weeks ago. Although I spent about a month putting together my talk for Commonwealth’s National Conference, which pretty much comes to that conclusion, I was not yet at a point where I would put that as the headline. Even as I rehearsed the night before, I was thinking about how I would handle the talk if the next morning’s data release—just hours before the talk itself—put inflation back up again. I couldn’t rewrite my presentation, as there wasn’t enough time (and besides, the art department was already upset with me).

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.