The Independent Market Observer

What Not to Worry About

June 1, 2016

I’ve been giving a presentation recently, developed during the worst of the first-quarter stock market pullback, that discusses what we, as investors, should worry about and why. It may seem obvious, but in fact, most people tend to focus on the wrong things.

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Important Vs. Urgent in Investing

May 26, 2016

I’m on the road today, traveling home from the Commonwealth Winners Circle conference in California. Besides hanging out with one of the nicest groups of people on the planet—the Commonwealth community—I got to have some fairly deep conversations about what financial advisors need, what investors need, and the problems both face in preparing for the future.

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Black Swans and Wildfires

May 11, 2016

In a recent post, I wrote that oil prices are subject to much more risk on the upside than many people think. Sure enough, plenty of readers responded with reasons why I was wrong, insisting that prices couldn’t rise higher.

They might be right, of course, but recent events suggest the risk on oil prices remains much more to the upside than many believe.

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How to Sell High and Buy Low

May 6, 2016

After Wednesday’s post on why many investment portfolios are doing badly, the natural follow-up question is, how do we get them to do better? Everyone, me included, would like to be able to buy into asset classes that will do well and avoid those that won’t.

If only it were that simple.

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Why Are My Investments Doing Badly?

May 4, 2016

I’ve had a lot of conversations recently about investment performance. Many people are reviewing their results, comparing them with what they expected and have received in the past, and asking themselves, Why are my investments doing so badly?

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More Thoughts on Retirement Investing

April 29, 2016


Following up on yesterday’s post, let’s take a look at how the income approach to retirement investing might play out in practice. (I'd like to acknowledge David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, whose recent newsletter inspired this topic.)

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Thoughts on Building a Retirement Portfolio

April 28, 2016

Since I turned 50, the idea of investing for retirement has taken on significantly more relevance. Not that I plan on retiring soon, but there’s something about the big 5-0 that makes you think it might not be so far off.

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How Much More Expensive Can the Market Get?

April 19, 2016

After 15-percent pullbacks in both the first quarter and the middle of last year, the market is moving up toward new highs. The Dow just ticked above 18,000 for the first time since last July, and the S&P 500 is getting close to the 2,100 level, last seen in December. All-time highs are 18,351.36 for the Dow and 2,134.72 for the S&P 500, so we are getting close.

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The Stock Market: Reasons for Optimism

March 8, 2016

As the market creeps back up, investors may be inclined to doubt the recovery. After all, there must have been a reason for the pullback we just saw. Couldn’t stocks drop again for the very same reason?

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Market Downturn: How Bad Could This Get?

January 6, 2016

In shades of last August, the Chinese stock market breaks down, markets around the world drop, and everyone starts to wonder one thing: just how bad can it get? 

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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