One of the most unusual aspects of this presidential campaign is how both parties have lined up in opposition to free trade. No surprise there from the Democrats, who have substantial interest groups that have always been anti-free trade, but it’s a complete reversal for the Republicans.

You have to figure that when both parties agree on something, government action becomes significantly more likely. And that means we as investors should start thinking about what protectionism means for us.

Writing my last few posts, about the real possibility of lower returns over the next few years, I got to thinking about how financial advisors add value—and how a skilled advisor can really help investors advance toward their financial goals.

The past two days, we’ve considered the likelihood that future returns for bonds and stocks will be disappointing.

Now, we get to the punch line: what does this mean for our own investments? And is there anything we can do about it?

Yesterday we talked about future bond returns, noting that while bonds have done very well over the past several decades, current conditions suggest their returns over the next 10 years could be significantly lower. Today, we’ll focus on stocks, making the same distinction between returns from income and returns from capital gains.

You’re probably familiar with the standard investment disclaimer “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” In other words, just because something worked in the past is no reason to assume it will work in the future. This is true: asset classes, in particular, tend to outperform and underperform in regular cycles.

With all of the headlines about interest rates hitting record lows—and with the worries about why this has happened and what it means—it is important to put some facts and context around what, in many ways, is an unprecedented set of circumstances. The following piece by Meagan Rogers, manager of Commonwealth’s Fixed Income Research team, does just that. She does an excellent job explaining the what, why, and how of lower yields, and I think it is well worth your time. Thanks, Meagan!

Yesterday, we talked about what the stock market is really saying. Briefly, despite all of the bad news out there, the stock market has not collapsed and the world is not coming to an end, at least in the short term. This, of course, is good news—but an absence of catastrophe doesn’t mean things will be good, either.

Over the last several posts, we’ve taken an in-depth look at bear markets—the factors that cause them, the events that indicate immediate risk is rising, and the time frames over which these events can develop. At the moment, the pieces don’t seem to be in place for a bear market, but the risk level does remain high.

Last week, we talked about several major warning signs for a bear market: recessions, commodity price spikes, rapid rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and high market valuations. In Friday’s Economic Risk Factor Update, we looked at the probability of a recession in the near future and concluded that it was unlikely.

Today, we’ll consider the next two risk factors: oil price spikes and Fed rate increases.

Yesterday we discussed what not to worry about, so today let’s take a look at what we, as investors, should be worrying about. In short, that would be a long-lived, substantial decline in the stock market—otherwise known as a bear market.