The Independent Market Observer

Employment Report Preview

August 4, 2016

The big news of the week will be the employment report for July, set for release tomorrow. U.S. consumers remain confident and business remains in the dumps, so the future really depends on whether consumers continue to feel good and whether businesses manage to expand.

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Monday Update: Despite Recent Strong News, GDP Growth Disappoints

August 1, 2016

Last week’s data showed that, although consumers continue to work and spend, business remains a weak point for the economy. Consumer news continued to surprise to the upside, but weak durable goods orders suggested that the industrial sector hasn’t stabilized yet. Lackluster business activity also led to a substantial disappointment in overall economic growth for the first half of the year.

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Monday Update: Housing Continues to Grow

July 25, 2016

Last week’s data came in above expectations, marking the fourth straight week of good news on the economy. Housing starts and sales grew and the industry remained confident, despite some signs of stabilization in the sector.

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Monday Update: Three Strong Weeks in a Row

July 18, 2016

Yet again, the economy surprised us with good news last week. U.S. consumers went shopping, driving retail sales numbers higher. At the same time, both industrial production and manufacturing beat expectations and moved back to growth.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, July 14, 2016 [Video]

July 15, 2016

With markets returning to all-time highs, where are the opportunities? Yesterday afternoon, I was on CNBC's Power Lunch to discuss where I see chances for potential growth, including within consumer staples and financials, with co-anchor Tyler Mathisen.

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Should We Be Worried About the Chinese Currency?

July 14, 2016

After the pullback in the first quarter of the year, followed by the Brexit collapse and quick recovery, it seems as if the market has pretty much decided to head up. With U.S. markets at all-time highs and earnings coming in better than expected so far, it seems quite likely we will see continued appreciation.

That said, we also need to start thinking about what could potentially bring the stock market's updward climb to an end.

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The Market’s New High Score

July 13, 2016

This morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high, as did the S&P 500. The news coverage seems to be split between those calling for even higher stock prices and those who are worried that a new bubble is forming.

In fact, it could be both.

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Monday Update: More Positive Surprises

July 11, 2016

For the second week in a row, the U.S. economy offered positive surprises. Both the service sector—the largest portion of the economy—and the employment market showed marked improvement, with data coming in well above expectations. Coupled with results from the previous week, the latest numbers suggest the economy has started to move again.

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Record-Low Interest Rates: Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

July 6, 2016

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” — Woody Allen

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Appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box, July 5, 2016 [Video]

July 5, 2016

After a disappointing six-month period, are things turning around? Two huge headwinds—dollar strength and the collapse in oil—seem to be abating, a positive sign. I discussed these developments and other economic expectations on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning. 

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