The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: An Unpleasant Surprise from the Service Sector

September 12, 2016

There was only one major economic report last week, but the data it presented was a very big negative surprise. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which tracks the service sector, was released on Tuesday and showed a decline from 55.5 to 51.4—a six-year low and significantly worse than the expected small drop to 54.9.

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Monday Update: Consumers Rocking, Business Rolling Over

September 6, 2016

Last week’s economic data showed that U.S. consumers continue to earn and spend while business continues to struggle. With both income and spending up, and surprisingly high levels of confidence, consumers are still driving economic growth. Business, on the other hand, has stepped back from the stronger results of the previous several months.

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Employment: The Big Picture

September 2, 2016

As I said yesterday, the jobs numbers are (in my opinion) the most important economic data we need to watch. It seems appropriate, as the Labor Day weekend begins, to spend some time thinking about where the labor market is going.

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August Employment Report Preview

September 1, 2016

Of all the economic reports out there—and there are thousands—the one I follow most closely is the employment report.

Why? Jobs are the best single indicator of what the economy is doing.

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Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, August 29, 2016 [Video]

August 30, 2016

With the U.S. economy trending up and the international economy improving, where should investors look? Yesterday afternoon, I was on CNBC’s Closing Bell offering thoughts on the day's market activity and the sectors to watch, including industrials and energy.

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Monday Update: Home Sales and Durable Goods Continue to Improve

August 29, 2016

Last week’s economic news showed that business confidence and activity are still improving. Notably, the housing market continues to show significant demand, although it’s now struggling with low inventory—a problem of success. Durable goods orders also ratified the continuing growth in the manufacturing and industrial sectors.

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New GICS Sector Could Benefit REITs

August 24, 2016

Today’s guest post is from Chad LaFauci, director of real assets at Commonwealth.

At the end of the month, the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) will introduce a new Real Estate sector—the first time a sector has been added since the system’s inception in 1999.

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Monday Update: Housing and Manufacturing Still Improving

August 22, 2016

Last week’s economic data showed that business confidence and activity continue to improve. Plus, housing sentiment and activity continue to expand, while manufacturing and even mining have started to grow again. Overall, last week’s results demonstrate that the weakest part of the recovery—private business—continues to strengthen.

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Monday Update: Consumers Take a Break

August 15, 2016

Last week’s limited economic data showed that consumers may be taking a break from spending, at least for the moment. Given a smaller-than-expected bounce back in confidence and a disappointing retail sales report, we need to keep an eye on whether consumer spending will continue to drive economic growth.

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Monday Update: Business Still Expanding, Hiring Strong

August 8, 2016

Last week’s data showed that, despite a small pullback from the previous month, business confidence remains positive across the board. Consumers also continued to demonstrate their confidence by spending. Finally, the jobs report came as a very positive surprise, suggesting that consumers are both willing and able to keep doing their bit for the economy.

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