The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Positive Surprises Across the Board

July 5, 2016

Last week’s economic news offered several positive surprises. Consumer confidence improved and incomes also rose, indicating that Americans are both more willing and more able to spend. Manufacturing, the weakest part of the economy for some time, moved back to material growth levels, raising the hope that the sector is finally reviving.

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Brexit and the Fourth of July

July 1, 2016

Okay, unless something else happens, I promise this will be it for the Brexit posts. I’m probably as sick as you are of the “all Brexit, all the time” coverage, and I’ve been guilty of that here on the blog as well. That said, I do think there’s one final point worth making about Brexit.

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3 Lessons from Brexit

June 30, 2016

With all the initial panic over the Brexit vote—and the subsequent relief as markets recovered—it’s been easy to lose sight of the bigger-picture lessons. Here are three that we should keep in mind.

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The Case for Brexit

June 29, 2016

Pretty much all of the coverage of the Brexit vote has been negative, and deservedly so. Even the positive spins have largely focused on how to either reverse the vote or minimize the damage.

When there's this much consensus on something, it’s usually time to take a close look at the other side. So let’s see if we can make a strong case that Brexit is a good thing.

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Appearance on Bloomberg TV, June 28, 2016 [Video]

June 29, 2016

Will the Brexit vote lead to another 2008, as many advisors and investors are wondering, or have we already weathered much of the storm, at least here in the U.S.? I talked about the economic fallout yesterday on Bloomberg TV’s Bloomberg Markets with program anchors David Gura, Vonnie Quinn, and Matt Miller. 

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Will Brexit Crash the Stock Market?

June 28, 2016

After a difficult two days, there’s a serious question on many investors’ minds: Is this the big one, the next crash? It's a reasonable concern. After all, haven’t we been hearing about all the damage Brexit could do? And haven’t we sort of been down this road before, with the Greek crisis in 2011?

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Monday Update: Brexit Raises Economic Risks

June 27, 2016

Last week's economic news fell below expectations across the board. Although housing markets continued to grow, there are potential signs of slowing, and business spending continues to be weak. Of course, the big news of the week—Britain’s decision to leave the EU—will probably exacerbate that weakness, even if it is unlikely to drive the U.S. into a recession.

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Brexit After All

June 24, 2016

I woke up early this morning to check the results of the British referendum on leaving the European Union. Against expectations, the Leave vote won a convincing victory, defying the polls and the prediction markets.

There’s no doubt the world has changed, significantly. There is considerable doubt about what that actually means and—more immediatelywhat to do about it.

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Beyond Brexit: The Longer-Term Risks

June 22, 2016

As we watch how the British referendum plays out tomorrow, we need to keep something in mind: It’s almost never the bus you are watching that hits you.

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Countdown to the Brexit Vote

June 21, 2016

With the British referendum on leaving the European Union—the “Brexit” vote—just two days away, worries are starting to rise again. As I wrote recently, I suspect that the Remain side will win. And even if the Leave camp prevails, the actual impact may be much less severe than many are now predicting. 

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