The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: More Signs of Slowing Growth

May 1, 2017

Although demand for housing remains strong, last week’s economic data was generally downbeat, suggesting growth is moderating and that chances for a near-term acceleration may be passing. Although general levels of activity remain expansionary, it was a disappointing week overall—and one that starts to call into question future growth.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The Trump Tax Plan: What You Need to Know

April 27, 2017

The big news today is the White House's tax plan, which proposes to cut taxes across the board, relieve millions of people from the burden of paying income taxes, and make filing much simpler and easier—all while keeping the budget in balance (or at least not making the situation worse).

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Despite Some Weakness, Growth Continues

April 24, 2017

Last week’s economic reports showed some moderation of growth, with substantial divergence between the headline figures and the underlying details in several cases. That said, the general levels of activity remain expansionary. Overall, it was a pretty positive week, but not one that significantly changes expectations going forward.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

When Assessing the Economy, Mind the Gaps

April 21, 2017

A friend of mine, a construction manager, once taught me a valuable lesson about evaluating the quality of a building: examine the edges, the corners, and where one material connects to another. Handling the transitions well requires skill, expertise, and time—and not all builders are able to pull it off.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

With French Election, Potential for Economic Shake-Up

April 20, 2017

If the U.S. economy isn’t bleeding—at least not a lot, yet—then what is? I closed yesterday’s post with the idea that Europe is the area we should be watching, and the place to start is in France.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Retail Sales Disappoint Despite Strong Sentiment

April 17, 2017

Last week’s data brought more of what we’ve been seeing lately: strong sentiment but weaker results. Despite some disappointments, the general levels of activity remain expansionary, though the headline declines do bear watching. That said, I don’t think last week’s news should significantly change expectations going forward.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Appearance on CNBC’s Nightly Business Report, April 6, 2017 [Video]

April 10, 2017

Last Thursday, I had the privilege of appearing on CNBC’s Nightly Business Report (my segment runs from 7:25 to 10:27) to discuss risks to the markets and economy.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Amid Continuing Growth, Some Signs of Weakness

April 10, 2017

Last week was an eventful one in terms of economic data, with extensive news on both business and jobs. Although headline declines raised some concern, the details of the reports were better, and general levels of activity remain expansionary. Overall, it was a pretty positive week and shouldn't alter expectations going forward.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

March Jobs Report Preview

April 6, 2017

The monthly employment report comes out tomorrow, and markets are watching closely to see whether the string of positive surprises continues. If it does, it could be the start of a new upward run in the stock market. If not, it will suggest that economic strength may be starting to moderate. Either way, it will be big news.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Consumers Confident, Just Not Spending Much

April 3, 2017

Last week’s data was generally positive, showing that consumers are feeling better and earning more. Surprisingly, spending growth continues to be weak, but that’s probably due to weather. Overall, it was a good week, but not one that significantly changes expectations going forward.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 9
July 23, 2025

Episode 8
June 18, 2025

Episode 7
May 14, 2025

Episode 6
April 23, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®