The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Service Sector Down, Remains Healthy

June 12, 2017

Last week was quite slow from an economic news standpoint, but things will pick up in the week ahead.

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From Super Thursday to Freaky Friday: Why Are Markets Rising?

June 9, 2017

Well that was unusual. After all the concern around yesterday’s events, two of the three turned out to be even more disruptive than expected. The British election resulted in a hung parliament, substantially increasing political uncertainty, and former FBI Director Comey’s testimony was every bit as potentially concerning for the White House as had been anticipated. Yet the markets are up today pretty much across the board. What’s going on?

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Super Thursday: What It Means (and What It Doesn’t)

June 8, 2017

Today is a big day on the current events front, so much so that I’ve seen it referred to as “Super Thursday.” We have the British election; the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will determine the course of monetary policy; and, closer to home, the testimony of former FBI Director James Comey. I've spent a lot of time recently discussing these events, both individually and collectively, and what they could mean for the U.S. economy and markets. On reflection, they provide a good example of how investors spend quite a bit of time focusing on things that do not really matter—and ignore things that do. But more on that later.

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Monday Update: Economy Starting to Hit Its Limits

June 5, 2017

Last week’s data was mixed, with some strong areas offset by areas of weakness. Looking at the big picture, growth is likely to continue and even accelerate over the next couple of quarters. Still, the economy is starting to hit its limits, particularly in employment.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Weak Headlines but Positive Details

May 30, 2017

Based on the headlines, last week’s data was disappointing. But the details were more positive, leaving conditions pretty much as expected. In addition, despite the weak current results, previous months generally turned out better than initially reported and were revised upwards. Plus, long-term trends remain positive. So, while not a great month overall, it was better than it first looked for these data points.

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What’s Up with Bitcoin?

May 26, 2017

One of the stories that has moved back into public view is bitcoin. With recent price spikes, interest in bitcoin has spiked as well, as investors try to get in on what looks like the latest hot thing. In fact, the price has more than doubled this year and has gone parabolic in recent weeks: up from about $1,000 in March to over $2,000 recently. What’s going on?

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Monday Update: Housing and Industry Look Strong

May 22, 2017

Last week’s data was generally positive, with housing sentiment rising even further and industrial production posting a surprisingly large gain. Although there were weak points—multifamily construction is slowing—growth is broad based and may be accelerating. Overall, the results remain positive looking forward.

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Monday Update: Inflation Low, Confidence and Spending Up

May 15, 2017

Last week’s data was positive, reversing concern about consumer spending and suggesting consumer confidence remains strong. Lower inflation results were noteworthy but not of immediate worry. Overall, the data suggests that the slowdown in the first quarter is likely to get better—possibly significantly—over the next couple of months.

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Monday Update: Outlook Positive Despite Mixed Results

May 8, 2017

Last week’s data was mixed, with two areas of concern, but it also included significant positive surprises. Overall, results suggest the slowdown in the first quarter is likely to get better, possibly a lot better, over the next couple of months.

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Economic Slowdown Averted?

May 5, 2017

We’ve been seeing mixed data on the economy lately—even some signs that a slowdown might be under way. But was the slowdown real, or was it just another slow first quarter, which has been the norm for the past couple of years? A weak set of data for March raised concerns even higher, and this week was going to help us confirm what was really going on.  

As of today, it looks like predictions of the recovery’s death have been exaggerated once again.

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