After writing yesterday’s post, it occurred to me that it would make sense to apply the measures I use for the U.S. to other economies where problems could affect us. Interestingly enough, just as I thought that, articles pointed out that one of my key metrics—the yield curve, which represents how much central banks are stimulating an economy—had just flashed a trouble signal in China.

I have written about this concept before, but given some conversations I’ve had recently, I think it’s a great time to revisit it. When trying to understand both what is happening and (ideally) what is going to happen, we need to be able to identify what is important—and what is not. In other words, what signals should we pay attention to—and what noise should we ignore?

Warren Buffett has said that he finds living in Omaha to be an advantage, as it distances him from much of the daily noise of the financial markets. Since I’ve been in Hungary at a conference this week, I’m starting to understand what he means.

I’m in Budapest, Hungary, this week at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference. As always, it's great to spend time with such a fantastic group of financial advisors. It is an enormous privilege to be here.

As April draws to a close, the old adage “Sell in May and go away” may be on some investors’ minds. The saying refers to the tendency of markets to underperform during the period from May to October (as compared with better performance from November through April), advising us to sell and wait for brighter days ahead.

Yesterday, readers wrote in with a couple of very good questions about risk.

As I sit here looking out the window, wondering if my flight this afternoon will be able to take off, I’m reminded of the old proverb “April showers bring May flowers.” With rain coming down in buckets and expected to continue all day, we have no shortage of showers here in Boston. You could say the same for the U.S. economy and financial markets.

What will we look back on, six or twelve months from now, and not be able to believe we didn’t see? This is always a good question to ask, but looking at the calendar, it’s particularly apropos.

What April Fools' pranks might the market be playing on us right now?

As we close out the first quarter of 2017, all I can say is that it’s been a great one, economically and financially. Despite all of the worry and turmoil—in Washington, DC, and elsewhere in the world—markets have risen substantially and the economy has continued to grow.

Yesterday, we finally saw a market decline of more than 1 percent, after a very long time without one. Is this the end of the rally?