The Independent Market Observer

What Are Investors Worried About?

September 19, 2017

Yesterday, I spent the day in New York talking with a number of people, including many in the media. I always find this incredibly interesting. Media folks are invariably intelligent and very well informed about what a wide variety of players, including investors, are worried about—and what they are actually doing about it.

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Is the Bitcoin Ride Over?

September 15, 2017

Recently, I announced that bitcoin was the winner of the “Bubby,” an award I made up for the bubble of the year. I kind of like the idea—and will do it again—but it was certainly done at least a bit tongue in cheek to highlight the appreciation over the recent past. Sometimes, however, you get it right almost by accident. Events since then have made that post seem somewhat prescient.

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A Broader View on Inflation: Looking at the Forest, Not the Trees

September 14, 2017

Among economists and investors, one of the biggest problems out there is inflation. It should be rising, but it isn’t. Related to this and contributing to the problem is that wages—according to theory and past history—should also be rising. Together, these would push all prices higher but are not. What's going on?

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Investing in Troubled Times: Navigating North Korea, Harvey, and Irma

September 7, 2017

The past few weeks have been unusually turbulent. North Korea has tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb and launched a missile over Japan; as a result, the U.S. is openly considering war. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, devastating both Texas and Louisiana. And now we have Hurricane Irma, the most powerful Atlantic storm in history, approaching Florida. Given these events, there are certain questions that investors should be asking themselves. That is, should we be doing something different? If so, what?

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Is the Employment Boom Still On?

September 1, 2017

Early last year, I made a rather bold statement: the employment boom was on. I had been hinting at it well before that, but in April, I finally felt that I could make a good case. Now, more than a year later, concerns about the economy are rising. So, is the employment boom still on?

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What Consumer Debt Levels Say About the Business Cycle

August 30, 2017

Today’s post is from Peter Essele, a manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

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What Happens to the Stock Market in Times of War?

August 23, 2017

Today's post is from Anuradha Gaggar of Commonwealth’s Investment Research team.

Earlier this month, capital markets declined sharply at the very hint of rising tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. Now, it’s not surprising that many global citizens would be fearful at the thought of nuclear war and the far-reaching social, political, and economic effects that could result. What may be surprising, however, is that capital markets have historically been much more stoic in times of war.

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Identifying My Mistakes (and What I Did About Them)

August 15, 2017

I received a really interesting e-mail from one of our advisors the other day. He asked me to identify instances when I had been completely wrong about something, why I had made the mistakes, and what I had learned from them. He was looking for ways to better himself when it came to thinking about the future—a goal I totally endorse.

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Is This Normal?

August 11, 2017

Events of the past couple of days have me thinking about the entire concept of normal. “Normal,” by definition, means “usual, average, or typical.” It’s a good definition. But when you actually apply it to what we see around us, that definition makes you consider whether the current “normal” meets those conditions—and thus deserves the term.

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North Korea and the Markets: Should We Be Worried?

August 10, 2017

After a dip and recovery yesterday, the markets were down this morning. It is clear that the developing situation between the U.S. and North Korea is rattling financial markets. Should we be worried? If so, what should we do?

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