---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (87)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (87)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/welcome-to-the-new-new-normal)

## [Welcome to the New New Normal](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/welcome-to-the-new-new-normal)

March 29, 2018

In the first couple of years after the financial crisis, there was a lot of discussion about the “new normal.” This referred to the new environment characterized by lower interest rates, lower growth, lower inflation, and lower volatility. The sense was that things really were different this time, and we had to understand that.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/welcome-to-the-new-new-normal) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/welcome-to-the-new-new-normal#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-worry-effectively-about-the-market)

## [How to Worry Effectively About the Market](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-worry-effectively-about-the-market)

March 28, 2018

I suspect that many of us are worried about the stock market. I certainly am, but what else is new? That’s why they call me Eeyore. But worrying by itself doesn’t do any good. What is important is to figure out how to worry effectively. That is, by identifying the real signs of trouble, you can focus on those and not worry until there really is something to worry about. I think we could all use a refresher on how to do this.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-worry-effectively-about-the-market) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/how-to-worry-effectively-about-the-market#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-markets-bounce-back-whats-going-on)

## [The Markets Bounce Back: What’s Going On?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-markets-bounce-back-whats-going-on)

March 27, 2018

Wow. After a significant decline last Thursday and Friday, markets bounced back yesterday in a big way. What’s going on?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-markets-bounce-back-whats-going-on) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-markets-bounce-back-whats-going-on#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Stock5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/beyond-tariffs-more-changing-fundamental-trends)

## [Beyond Tariffs: More Changing Fundamental Trends](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/beyond-tariffs-more-changing-fundamental-trends)

March 23, 2018

The big news yesterday was the market decline after the announcement of [U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-new-round-of-tariffs-keep-calm-but-pay-attention). As we saw with the previous round of tariffs, markets are pulling back and forth between the very real potential damage a trade war could cause and the likelihood that one won’t happen.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/beyond-tariffs-more-changing-fundamental-trends) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/beyond-tariffs-more-changing-fundamental-trends#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/china_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-new-round-of-tariffs-keep-calm-but-pay-attention)

## [A New Round of Tariffs: Keep Calm—But Pay Attention](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-new-round-of-tariffs-keep-calm-but-pay-attention)

March 22, 2018

The economic news today should be about the Fed and how its new chairman sounded at the press conference yesterday. Indeed, there has been some commentary on that, and it was largely good. But any Fed news has been overshadowed by the expected (now confirmed) announcement from the White House of a new round of tariffs on China. Markets have taken note by heading down, so that is what we will be discussing today.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-new-round-of-tariffs-keep-calm-but-pay-attention) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-new-round-of-tariffs-keep-calm-but-pay-attention#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Housing_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-housing-market-rolling-over)

## [Is the Housing Market Rolling Over?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-housing-market-rolling-over)

March 21, 2018

I consider housing to be one of the key drivers of the economy. This is true from a fundamental basis—with housing driving construction and mortgage finance, which are significant parts of the economy, plus all sorts of indirect spending such as furniture. But it also holds true from a confidence and wealth-building perspective. Homeownership provides a level of economic security for most families that enables them to save and invest at higher levels, even before considering the substantial economic benefit of home appreciation. Housing matters for a reason.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-housing-market-rolling-over) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-housing-market-rolling-over#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Newspaper_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/no-economic-news-is-good-news)

## [No Economic News Is Good News](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/no-economic-news-is-good-news)

March 16, 2018

One of the best ways to tell that the economic news is good is that it simply isn’t showing up in the news. The old media saying, “if it bleeds it leads,” means you don’t see a lot of good news on the front pages. Hence, we now have politics taking the lead, along with various disasters. When business stories do appear, they are typically company specific and focus on (what else?) bad news. The Toys R Us bankruptcy is a case in point today.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/no-economic-news-is-good-news) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/no-economic-news-is-good-news#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-the-great-financial-crisis-happen-again)

## [Could the Great Financial Crisis Happen Again?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-the-great-financial-crisis-happen-again)

March 14, 2018

Today marks the 10th anniversary of the failure of the Wall Street firm Bear Stearns, widely considered the opening act of the great financial crisis of 2008. Bear was done in, so the story goes, by a mix of ill-considered bets on mortgage securities and excessive borrowing. After it went down, banks started to look around to see what other companies might fail—and found that they really couldn’t tell. As a consequence, each bank started to pull back individually, and the flow of liquidity that supported Wall Street fell apart. As each bank pulled away, the fears of collapse started to turn into reality, which only worsened the problem. The downward spiral led to what we now know as the great financial crisis, from which we have been recovering for the past 10 years.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-the-great-financial-crisis-happen-again) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/could-the-great-financial-crisis-happen-again#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/USeconomy_10.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/an-economic-forecast-the-jobs-report-tariffs-and-bear-stearns)

## [An Economic Forecast: The Jobs Report, Tariffs, and Bear Stearns](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/an-economic-forecast-the-jobs-report-tariffs-and-bear-stearns)

March 8, 2018

I woke up this morning to a surprise. It had snowed, which was expected. After all the fear-mongering coverage, in fact, I expected the house to be covered, but it wasn’t so bad. The real surprise was the fact that a combination of wind and heavy snow had taken down several trees—including an 18-footer right across most of my driveway. All of a sudden, I was cut off.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/an-economic-forecast-the-jobs-report-tariffs-and-bear-stearns) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/an-economic-forecast-the-jobs-report-tariffs-and-bear-stearns#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Politics_11.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/gary-cohn-resigns-the-other-shoe-has-dropped)

## [Gary Cohn Resigns: The Other Shoe Has Dropped](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/gary-cohn-resigns-the-other-shoe-has-dropped)

March 7, 2018

Yesterday, I wrote that the [markets](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-ups-and-downs-whats-going-on) were likely to continue to trend upward, on the idea that the U.S. tariffs were not really going to happen. But then the news that Gary Cohn had resigned as head of the National Economic Council was announced—and this has changed that perception entirely.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/gary-cohn-resigns-the-other-shoe-has-dropped) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/gary-cohn-resigns-the-other-shoe-has-dropped#comments-listing)

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- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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