Yesterday, I was down in Nashville speaking at the Financial Planning Association’s national meeting. It was an interesting time! Speaking with the young man at the coffee shop, our conversation went something like this: “I’m from Alabama.” “How did you get here?” “Like everybody else, music.” Clearly, this is a one-industry town, from the convention center (the Music City Center) to the signs for the Grand Ole Opry.

As we close out the third quarter of the year, here’s what we know. It has been a great year and a great quarter for stocks around the world. We’ve seen a really good month for all areas except emerging markets, which pulled back a bit but still posted the strongest quarterly gains overall. Financial assets have been doing much better than expected across the board, and investors remain extremely confident this trend will continue.

Yesterday, I spoke with an advisor who told me that a potential confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea is creating a lot of fear among his clients. In fact, one client wants to sell everything and go to cash due to concerns over what might happen. I certainly understand this, particularly in light of the rising level of rhetoric from both sides. That being said, I don’t think we need to be as worried as all that.

Energy, in particular the oil and gas industry, has always been one of the foundations of both the economy and the financial markets. The world has run on oil and gas for decades, to the extent that oil prices have been among the key determinants of recessions and market crashes. In recent years, that impact has been just as strong. The rise in oil prices in the 2000s—and the recent collapse—shook economies and governments around the world.

Yesterday, I spent the day in New York talking with a number of people, including many in the media. I always find this incredibly interesting. Media folks are invariably intelligent and very well informed about what a wide variety of players, including investors, are worried about—and what they are actually doing about it.

Recently, I announced that bitcoin was the winner of the “Bubby,” an award I made up for the bubble of the year. I kind of like the idea—and will do it again—but it was certainly done at least a bit tongue in cheek to highlight the appreciation over the recent past. Sometimes, however, you get it right almost by accident. Events since then have made that post seem somewhat prescient.

Among economists and investors, one of the biggest problems out there is inflation. It should be rising, but it isn’t. Related to this and contributing to the problem is that wages—according to theory and past history—should also be rising. Together, these would push all prices higher but are not. What's going on?

The past few weeks have been unusually turbulent. North Korea has tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb and launched a missile over Japan; as a result, the U.S. is openly considering war. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, devastating both Texas and Louisiana. And now we have Hurricane Irma, the most powerful Atlantic storm in history, approaching Florida. Given these events, there are certain questions that investors should be asking themselves. That is, should we be doing something different? If so, what?

Early last year, I made a rather bold statement: the employment boom was on. I had been hinting at it well before that, but in April, I finally felt that I could make a good case. Now, more than a year later, concerns about the economy are rising. So, is the employment boom still on?

Today’s post is from Peter Essele, a manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.