--- title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (88) description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (88) --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-ups-and-downs-whats-going-on) ## [Market Ups and Downs: What's Going On?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-ups-and-downs-whats-going-on) March 6, 2018 Well, that was quick. After a sharp but short pullback in late January/early February, the market started to rally again. But it was derailed by the announcement—by the U.S. president—of an impending trade war. Then, after an even shorter and less sharp pullback, it seems to have started to rally again (although it is slightly down as I write this). What’s going on? [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-ups-and-downs-whats-going-on) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-ups-and-downs-whats-going-on#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Stock5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-a-look-ahead-an-economic-snapshot) ## [A Look Back, a Look Ahead: An Economic Snapshot](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-a-look-ahead-an-economic-snapshot) March 1, 2018 As we head into March, I thought it would be a good time to take an economic snapshot—by looking back at February and at what we might expect in the month ahead. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-a-look-ahead-an-economic-snapshot) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-a-look-ahead-an-economic-snapshot#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/FederalReserve_1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-a-new-sheriff-in-town) ## [Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: A New Sheriff in Town?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-a-new-sheriff-in-town) February 28, 2018 Yesterday was the first time that the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, testified before Congress. There has been quite a bit of coverage regarding what he said both in his initial statement and in response to questions. Here, I want to focus on just one sentence. After noting that “the FOMC \[Federal Open Market Committee\] routinely consults monetary policy rules,” he concluded with what I think was the most important sentence of the day: “Personally, I find these rule prescriptions helpful.” He then referenced a section in the Fed’s monetary policy report that goes through some of the more common rules and how the Fed applies them. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-a-new-sheriff-in-town) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-a-new-sheriff-in-town#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/ConsumerSpending_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-hits-new-highs-hooray) ## [Consumer Confidence Hits New Highs—Hooray?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-hits-new-highs-hooray) February 27, 2018 Normally, I don’t weigh in on individual economic stats. But when the consumer confidence number came out this morning, my jaw actually dropped and I muttered “wow” under my breath. (That doesn’t happen often either!) This is, in fact, such an unusual occurrence that I think we need to consider exactly what it means—which is probably not as good as it looks at first glance. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-hits-new-highs-hooray) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-confidence-hits-new-highs-hooray#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-role-vix-etps-played-in-recent-market-volatility) ## [The Role VIX ETPs Played in Recent Market Volatility](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-role-vix-etps-played-in-recent-market-volatility) February 23, 2018 *Today's post is from Brian McCormick, manager of Commonwealth's Investment Management and Research team.* [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-role-vix-etps-played-in-recent-market-volatility) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-role-vix-etps-played-in-recent-market-volatility#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Bonds1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-you-lose-money-in-bonds) ## [Will You Lose Money in Bonds?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-you-lose-money-in-bonds) February 22, 2018 *Today's post is from Peter Essele, manager of Commonwealth's Investment Management and Research team.* [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-you-lose-money-in-bonds) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-you-lose-money-in-bonds#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/emerging-markets-the-long-term-view) ## [Emerging Markets: The Long-Term View](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/emerging-markets-the-long-term-view) February 21, 2018 *Today’s post comes from Anu Gaggar of Commonwealth’s Investment Research team. Take it away, Anu! —Brad* [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/emerging-markets-the-long-term-view) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/emerging-markets-the-long-term-view#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Debt%20ceiling2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-deficit-the-debt-and-interest-rates) ## [The Deficit, the Debt, and Interest Rates](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-deficit-the-debt-and-interest-rates) February 16, 2018 The political reaction to the tax reform bill that was recently passed has grown more favorable over time. Initially, people appeared skeptical. But now that lower withholding rates are actually showing up in paychecks, the sentiment is turning more positive. Economically, we are seeing the same thing. Consumer confidence is rising again, due at least in part to larger paychecks. That should also translate, over time, to faster growth as both people and businesses are increasingly willing and able to spend. The recent debt ceiling deal should also help economic growth, with hundreds of billions of dollars in additional spending. This kind of fiscal stimulus will certainly help growth accelerate this year. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-deficit-the-debt-and-interest-rates) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-deficit-the-debt-and-interest-rates#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Stock6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-interest-rates-and-the-stock-market) ## [Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Stock Market](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-interest-rates-and-the-stock-market) February 15, 2018 The big economic news this week—now that the stock market has calmed down—is the apparent rise of inflation. In fact, inflation does appear to be on the rise, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing faster growth in the past 18 months, as you can see in the chart below. We will be using the CPI for the rest of the discussion, given the relatively short span of the PPI data, but note that the two series have been saying the same thing. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-interest-rates-and-the-stock-market) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-interest-rates-and-the-stock-market#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Stock5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/lessons-from-the-market-pullback) ## [Lessons from the Market Pullback](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/lessons-from-the-market-pullback) February 14, 2018 Now that the markets have seemingly calmed down a bit—although there is certainly no guarantee that will remain the case—it is a good time to look at the past couple of weeks and see what lessons can be drawn. Prior to that point, we had not had a significant pullback in two years. Let’s face it, we are out of practice at watching the markets drop. So, what do we know now that we didn’t know two weeks ago? [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/lessons-from-the-market-pullback) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/lessons-from-the-market-pullback#comments-listing) [Previous](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/87) [Next](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/89) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLLRGtxEEwHY8BXMAPl1mJ5h7rr4WF05oGhkUwRdPDpuyTgZnEWVqvCVVdJ1nZdvObzUm4wTe%2BQGfI22QqmWuFSZG2qke6X8MOi9kUp2ORJZgQJI9%2Ffs5my5TEjqWZSopU23Q5mjWiXnhL7DH%2B3MFnz4Si%2BZUbPRQzxBTTZinAplzPzleyl47rmOPO5aAqdsYr02TB5o3ZIUTjc%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - 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