---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (79)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (79)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-now-world)

## [The Now World](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-now-world)

November 14, 2018

As we [discussed yesterday](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-from-the-new-world-to-the-next-world), the world is always changing. But in the past couple of years, there has been a growing sense that the changes we’re seeing now go beyond what is normal. From an investment and economic perspective, it seems these changes might be getting systemic enough that, over the next decade or so, it really will be different this time. To understand what might happen next, though, it is important to understand where we are starting from—as the next world will inevitably evolve from the now world.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-now-world) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-now-world#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-from-the-new-world-to-the-next-world)

## [Moving from the New World to the Next World](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-from-the-new-world-to-the-next-world)

November 13, 2018

Now that I am back from the Commonwealth National Conference, I want to spend the next week or so outlining the ideas behind my speech there. The genesis of my presentation was the hundreds of conversations I had with financial advisors and clients over the preceding months. All had different questions and concerns—ranging from whether the U.S. was inevitably declining to whether the U.S. was the only safe place to invest. But over time, a common core concern emerged: the sense that somehow things were changing, as well as the growing worry that the answers we have relied on no longer fit in the new world we are moving into.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-from-the-new-world-to-the-next-world) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-from-the-new-world-to-the-next-world#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Election_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-did-the-midterm-elections-mean-for-the-market)

## [What Did the Midterm Elections Mean for the Market?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-did-the-midterm-elections-mean-for-the-market)

November 9, 2018

This week, the big news was the Democrats’ takeover of the House of Representatives and the subsequent large bounce back in the stock market. Put together, it sounds like I am implying a causal connection. I suppose I am—but not the obvious one.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-did-the-midterm-elections-mean-for-the-market) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-did-the-midterm-elections-mean-for-the-market#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2018)

## [A Look Back at the Markets in October and Ahead to November 2018](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2018)

November 8, 2018

I think we are all glad October is over. U.S. markets were down between 5 percent and 10 percent at the end of the month, even after a partial recovery, and international markets were down 8 percent to 9 percent. A sudden drop in confidence, especially in the big tech stocks, also rocked markets in a way we have not seen in some time. Indeed, October lived up to its scary reputation. But what does this mean for November?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2018) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-october-and-ahead-to-november-2018#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/USeconomy_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headed-to-commonwealths-national-conference)

## [Headed to Commonwealth’s National Conference!](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headed-to-commonwealths-national-conference)

November 1, 2018

Next week is Commonwealth’s National Conference—an annual event where as many Commonwealth advisors as can make it gather together to learn, to network, and, most important, to have a good time together. This year, we are down in Austin again, a wonderful town. I am very much looking forward to it!

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headed-to-commonwealths-national-conference) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headed-to-commonwealths-national-conference#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/InterestRates_5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/thinking-about-stock-valuations)

## [Thinking About Stock Valuations](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/thinking-about-stock-valuations)

October 31, 2018

The other day in my post on the likelihood of another [market crash](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/time-to-plan-for-the-next-big-market-crash), I pointed out that stocks could be viewed as either *cheap* (based on expected earnings growth and the forward P/E ratio for the past five years or so) or *expensive* (based on most of history before that). The real question, going forward, is whether the past five years are a better guide for the future or whether prior history is. In other words, are things different this time?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/thinking-about-stock-valuations) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/thinking-about-stock-valuations#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-volatility-optimizing-gains-vs.-avoiding-losses)

## [Market Volatility: Optimizing Gains Vs. Avoiding Losses](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-volatility-optimizing-gains-vs.-avoiding-losses)

October 30, 2018

As you might imagine, I have been thinking about the financial markets quite a bit in recent days and trying (as we all have) to figure out what comes next. As I went through this process, though, it occurred to me that this is a great chance to evaluate *how* we think about the market as well. So for today’s post, let’s do both.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-volatility-optimizing-gains-vs.-avoiding-losses) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-volatility-optimizing-gains-vs.-avoiding-losses#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-dominoes-keep-falling)

## [Market Dominoes Keep Falling](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-dominoes-keep-falling)

October 26, 2018

After yesterday’s bounce, we’re seeing another bad day for the market. When I started writing this, the S&P 500 was down another 2 percent. The proximate cause here seems to be slower-than-expected revenue growth in two bellwether tech companies, Google and Amazon. They are down significantly more than the market as a whole, although the damage is widespread.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-dominoes-keep-falling) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-dominoes-keep-falling#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/time-to-plan-for-the-next-big-market-crash)

## [Time to Plan for the Next Big Market Crash?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/time-to-plan-for-the-next-big-market-crash)

October 25, 2018

I still suspect that [current market volatility](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-could-take-the-market-back-up) will ultimately prove to be a short-lived pullback. But there is no doubt that the risks are rising. Yesterday’s drop started to show signs of what could be a break in confidence, which could lead to further losses. As such, we need to start thinking about what those losses might mean. Even if this isn’t the next big market crash, we can reasonably expect that to show up in the next couple of years. So, this line of thinking certainly isn’t wasted effort.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/time-to-plan-for-the-next-big-market-crash) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/time-to-plan-for-the-next-big-market-crash#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_1-1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-could-take-the-market-back-up)

## [What Could Take the Market Back Up?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-could-take-the-market-back-up)

October 24, 2018

We have spent the past couple of days worrying about the [market dropping](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/another-bad-day-in-the-market-now-what). Indeed, today we have a further decline. This volatility isn’t unexpected, certainly. But the further down we go, the more worried we should be—and the more inevitable further declines look.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-could-take-the-market-back-up) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-could-take-the-market-back-up#comments-listing)

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- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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